War in Iraq

The war of Iraq opposed at the origin the Iraq controlled by the Parti Baath of Saddam Hussein to a Coalition carried out by the the United States. Beginning with the Invasion from Iraq in 2003 (known as “ Operation Iraqi Freedom ”), the president George W. Bush officially stated his completion on May 1st 2003, under the banner Mission accomplished . However, the conflict perdure until today, the American army being always an occupying power, while the various parts seem to be committed in a Civil war long-term. This multiform war combines Résistance to the occupant, Terrorisme and fights between the components sunnite S, Shiite S and Kurdish of the population. In September 2007, Iraq Body Count estimates that of 73 000 with 80 000 Iraqi civilians died in violences, made up primarily of attacks, for which it is necessary to add more 3 800 died in the American rows (4 approximately 100 for the whole of the troops of the coalition) and more 36 000 wounded Western side, deaths of the private military companies, and among the Iraqi combatants (army and risen). The war caused the Exode at least two million Iraqis, refugees abroad since 2003 (mainly in Syria and Jordan, but also in Europe and in the USA). The site National priorities estimates at 415 billion dollars the cost of the war.

The war of Iraq is the second war of the 21e century characterized by the Doctrine Bush of preventive Guerre and the second relating to what some call new the American Empire (the first being that against Afghanistan). It is in particular the occasion, for the United States and their allies, to test new methods of urban Guerre, using the technologies the most recent information, and new concepts of work in network.

This preventive war intervenes in the Lutte against terrorism that George W. Bush launched in answer to the Attentat S of the World Trade Center (WTC) the September 11th, 2001. This date made change the vision of the policy of George W. Bush: it was more particularly leaning on a fall of the Impôt S in the United States, but, since the Attentats of September 11th, the safety of the American people became a priority. For this reason, it launches an attack to an enemy invisible, unforeseeable, whom one cannot really locate: Bin Laden, the man who directs Al Qaeda, the terrorist body which asserted the attacks of the WTC.

After having launched an offensive in Afghanistan, place where Bin Laden took refuge, and suspectant bonds between Iraq/Iraq et al. Qaeda, George W.Bush charges Donald Rumsfeld and Tommy Franks to constitute a plan of attack against Iraq, it is the plan of operation 1003, which is a “evolution” of the plan of war of the First war of the Gulf.

Events having preceded the war

Determination of the United States

The second war of Iraq was carried out under the impulse of the the United States.

The officially called upon reasons were mainly:

the fight against the Terrorism, Iraq being presented like a state supporting Al-Qaïda, person in charge enter others of the attack against the military ship US Adhesive , of the attacks against several Ambassade S of the United States in Africa and of the attacks of September 11th, 2001

These charges for summer have shown like nonfounded, including by the American senate, Saddam Hussein regarding the islamist extremism as a threat for its mode.

the elimination of the weapons of massive destruction which Iraq was supposed to hold.

the Iraq survey group charged by the US government with finding these weapons declared in September 2004 that there was no more no chemical weapon since 1991, nor no program in progress in order to obtain news from them (see more low), and that only were collected in all the country 500 ammunition abandoned or forgotten and in a degraded state, dating from the Guerre Iran-Iraq.

the arrest of Saddam Hussein, introduction of a Democracy and the pacification of the area by an effect of example.

But these elements is disputed by very many Analyste S, Journaliste S and political officials. The elements advanced by the United States to support their assertions on the presence in Iraq of weapons of massive destruction, the continuation of research aiming at manufacturing of such weapons or the existence of bonds between Iraq and terrorism always cause controversies, especially after the publication of the memorandum of Downing Street . Moreover, certain elements cause interrogations on the real motivations of the intervention, like:

Certain observers suggested other reasons, semi-official:

bonds between the néo-conservatives with the capacity in Washington and of the companies of oil exploitation, in particular the Group Carlyle, Enron, Halliburton Energy Services (which Dick Cheney chaired) and Unocal (whose Hamid Karzai was one of the advisers);

bonds between the néo-conservatives with the capacity in Washington and of the sub-contracting companies of the army (of which Halliburton);

the decision of Iraq not to more put forward its oil against currencies in dollar S, but in Euro S (see 1).

Some also suggest that the war in Iraq can be regarded as a preventive war against the China whose development is compromised by its energy weakness, the United States wanting to encircle China by control of oil layers but also by the means of democratic evolutions (Mongolia, Kirghizie…).

One can thus distinguish two kinds of objectives, the objectives/stakes official, stated at the time of the speeches of the representatives of the White House and reported in the press, where the opinion of the doctrines which are expressed by semi-official objectives/stakes.

Official stakes

- Objective policies: as soon as possible to establish a transition government (Iraqi provisional government) which would indicate in the people a democratic government representative of all the Iraqi communities (Shiite, sunnites and Kurds), to capture the members of the Baath party and to judge them, reverse the dictatorial mode set up by Saddam Hussein and her family and to affect the goods (palate, money…) seized with those for the rebuilding of the infrastructures destroyed at the time of the war by the weapons (missiles, combat…) or plunderings.

- Objective humanitarians: to release Iraq of its Saddam Hussein dictator, so that Iraq becomes a linked, stable and free country, to support the rebuilding and the humanitarian aid, to minimize the damage caused with the infrastructure of the country and the civil population, to condemn Saddam Hussein for her crimes (violation of the human rights), to punish Iraq for the 16 resolutions of the United Nations which it did not respect and nonthe respect of the program “oil against food 2”. To promote the democracy and the women's rights in the Muslim world.

- Objective soldiers: to draw aside a threat which weighs on the world, due to the capacities which a war has Saddam Hussein to carry out; to neutralize the weapons of massive destruction (biological, chemical and nuclear) as well as the long-range missiles and the other armaments, to strike selected military targets, to return to Kuwait goods (works of art, military material) and prisoners of war, which were catch at the time of the first war of the Gulf.

- Objective anti-terrorists: to destroy the pockets of support for terrorism located in Iraq, to eliminate an ally from Al-Qaeda which helps and protects the terrorists, finance, and which gets a refuge for various Palestinian terrorist groups, which places weapons and military bases at the disposal of the Iranian terrorist groups.

- Objective economic: to protect the oil richnesses which will be useful for the rebuilding of the country and also for the program “oil against food”, stop of the black significant market.

Semi-official stakes

- Objective policy: to install a democratic regime which will serve the American interests and which moreover would be a threat for several Islamic regimes close to Iraq. Following the terrorist threats, which were expressed with the attacks of the World Trade Center, and the release of the Guerre against terrorism (Iraq and Afghanistan), that made it possible the Bush administration to become a rampart against terrorism with the eyes of million Americans and allowed the deployment without precedent of the American military power and to reinforce the image of Bush as “patriot” and “a defender of the nation”. The suppression of a mode anti-Israeli is also a factor to be taken into account.

- Objective soldier: to place American troops and bases permanently on the Iraqi ground for thus having a control on the Persian Gulf, to show in the world which the American army is always most powerful and which it can act effectively and quickly without worrying about the international community, to release from the American prisoners of war retained in Iraq. Iran, moreover, would be taken in " tenaille".

- Objective economic: this conflict would also make it possible many American companies close to the Bush administration (such as Halliburton and Bechtel) to benefit from Iraqi oil, to take the control of the oil wells of the 2nd world producer; it would be thus about a reason moved by the analysts of the Géopolitique of oil. The sector of the armament would also on the occasion " to run out the stocks" and of restimuler production by an increase in the " besoins". Much money could thus be reinjected in the US economy, more specifically in the sector of the armament and hydrocarbons, very close to the Republicans.

- Objective monk and ideological: to fight against the Moslem radical extremists who support terrorism and the “resistance” (such as Moqtada al-Sadr which says being the descendant of the Prophète and which refuses that Iraq is under American control). One needs, according to George W. Bush, to restore by the force so necessary, the essential values of freedom in the world. “Freedom in the world is a gift of God to all the men of the ground”. For this reason, America, has the duty to release the people because she plays the part of headlight of freedom in the world, and the responsibility to promote freedom.

Diplomatic conflict with UNO

This war makes following the Mission of UNO in Iraq which had in load the disarmament of the Iraq (resolution 1441 (2002), voted at the request of the Americans and the British) the November 8th 2002. The Safety advice of UNO could not agree between the partisans:

Axis of peace (Germany, China, France, Russia) for which all the peaceful means had not been exploited yet, in particular to still give time to the mission of the inspectors;
Axis of the war (the United States, the United Kingdom), for which the Iraq “did not play the game” and remained holder of weapons of massive destruction. Moreover, the countries of the coalition estimated that after 12 years of inspections and many resolutions, UNO had still not succeeded in determining the threat which could represent of possible Iraqi weapons of massive destruction. The eviction of U.N. inspectors in 1998 showed with the eyes of the American néo-conservatives the impotence of the international organization to be made respect.

Being given the reserves of China and the fact that France and Russia threatened to use their right of Veto to prevent an approval with UNO of the war against Iraq, and the strong probability that a majority of the Safety advice refuses to follow the the United States and the the United Kingdom, the latter decided to attack Iraq without the downstream of UNO. As after the War of Kosovo, it so illegal at its beginnings, in 1999, the war in Iraq was legalized a posteriori and de facto by the resolutions according to the war and organizing the occupation of the country. Kofi Annan, General secretary of the United Nations and the former general secretary Boutros Boutros-Ghali as several governments qualified the war of illegal.

Forces of the coalition

See also: international Coalition in Iraq

Engagement of armed forces at the time of the initial offensive: the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Poland.
Country having an active role and significant in the logistical support, political and armed: the Australia, the Bulgaria, the South Korea, the Denmark, the Spain until March 2004 (withdrawal of the troops following the legislative elections), the the United States, the Hungary, the Italy, the Japan, the Lithuania, the Netherlands, Filipino until July 2004 (disengagement following the execution of a Filipino hostage), the Poland, the Portugal, the Romania, the the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, the Slovakia, the Turkey, the Ukraine .

In March 2003, the 49 countries of the coalition quoted by the White House are: the Afghanistan, the Albania, the Angola, the Australia, the Azerbaïdjan, the Bulgaria, Colombia, the South Korea, the Costa Rica, the Denmark, the Dominican Republic, the El Salvador, the Érythrée, Spain, the Estonia, the the United States, the Ethiopia, the Georgia, the Honduras, the Hungary, the Italy, the Iceland, the Japan, the Kuwait, Lithuania, the Republic of Macedonia, the Marshall Islands, the Micronesia, the Mongolia, the Nicaragua, the Uganda, the Ouzbékistan, the Palaos, Panama, Filipino , the Poland, the Portugal, the Romania, the Rwanda, Singapore, the Slovakia, the Czech Republic, the the United Kingdom, the Tonga, the Turkey, the Ukraine.

the Spanish case : Whereas Spanish the Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar (Partido Popular, Spanish right-hand side) had initially engaged Spain in the conflict, the Spanish legislative elections of 2004 made him lose the majority, with the profit of the PSOE of Jose Luis Zapatero, which made the decision, in accordance with her program, to withdraw the Spanish troops of Iraq. A few days before the elections, a attack allotted to Al-Qaida had struck Madrid. Jose Maria Aznar had then shown the Basque organization ETA to be at the origin of the attacks, which appeared inaccurate. This error made lose any credibility with the Prime Minister, which would have, according to some, trained the victory of Jose Luis Zapatero.

Australian engagement: During the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, the Australia carried out by the John Howard conservative launches the Bastille operation, by sending approximately 2 000 men, three warships and about fifteen fighter plans. During the electoral campaign of the autumn 2004, the Labor opposition had promised to bring back the Australian soldiers to the country. The victory of the party of John Howard to the legislative elections (October 2004), combined of George W. Bush, should prolong the support for the American operation in Iraq (approximately 850 Australian on the spot).

In November 2006, the not-American forces, approximately 10% of manpower represent.

In addition to the United Kingdom, the nations having forces in Iraq are - in the decreasing order of manpower -: South Korea, Australia, Poland, Romania, Denmark, Romania, El Salvador, Georgia, Azerbaïdjan, Bulgaria, Latvia, Albania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Mongolia, Lithuania, Arménie, the Bosnia-Herzégovine, Estonia, Macedonia, Kazakhstan and Moldavie is more than 14.000 soldiers.

Nations as the Japan withdrew their terrestrial forces but contribute to the Logistique of the operation.

Opposition to the war

See also: total Demonstrations against the war in Iraq

In a very great number of countries, big demonstrations gathered the population wanting to show its refusal of the intervention américano-British. The movement was particularly intense in Europe, where, according to the surveys, between 70 and 90% of the population was opposed to this war. With London and Barcelona and Madrid particularly, the big demonstrations showed the rupture between the decisions of the two governments, which supported the war, and the will of the citizens, who were massively against.

2003: The conventional war

Unfolding and resulting from the war

Mediatization

One of large the first of this war was its very large mediatization. Some Journaliste S present at the first lines, were integrated or into the sides of the troops of the Coalition, or in potentially dangerous zones. Moreover, good number of soldiers equip their vehicles or their helmets with small webcam. Images of the face were diffused twenty-four hours out of twenty-four. Only the embarked journalists had access to the face directly: their neutrality was blamed for psychological reasons. Moreover, the modern armaments allowing of the distant attacks did not allow to see the engagements. Thus, in spite of a strong mediatization, the “Collateral damage” are not well evaluated.

An important part of the international press was gathered in the full heart of Baghdad, in the Palestine hotel, which was besides the object of certain American shootings. Several journalists were killed besides by the American forces during the conflict.

For example, the mediatized release of a soldier (Jessica Lynch) of an Iraqi hospital, where it was neat after her capture at the time of a ambush, filmed by cameras with night vision is also subject to deposit. Several witnesses speak about a setting in scene with shootings with white (see bond at the foot of the page). Several Iraqis had indicated to the forces of the coalition where it was and how to release it. The mission of help of the special forces was thus more traditional, because well few geôliers retorted. Jessica Lynch wrote a book which summarizes the events of which she remembers, its sufferings and all the mediatization that its release caused. In its book she explains why good number of Americans regarded it as a hero of war. Others, on the contrary regard it more as one kind of impostor. These people do not hesitate to call into question the means which were used for its release. Indeed, in fact special forces intervened, in great number and over-equipped, whereas the witnesses and the sources which had indicated the hospital where it was neat had specified that there was no main risk.

Another consequence of the mediatization, this harmful time pout the United States, is the noise which ran and which was confirmed in connection with tortures in the prisons of Abu Ghraib. Many photographs circulated on these tortures, the majority true, others faked by the press, made it possible to make pass before the martial court the responsible soldiers.

The end of the operation of conventional war learnedly was orchestrated at the time of a speech of the marked president on May 1st 2003 on the bridge of a nuclear Porte-avions on which one could read the banner Mission accomplished ; the US president pronounced it on a victorious tone after having landed of a Lockheed S-3 Viking.

Polemic in connection with the weapons of massive destruction

Revealed information pre-war period

Richard Butler, diplomat Australia N and chief of the United Nations Special Commission in charge of research on the subject after the war of the Gulf published a book in 2000, entitled The Greatest Threat: Iraq, Weapons off Farmhouse Destruction, and the Crisis off Total Security . (“Largest of the threats: WMDS of Iraq and the crisis for the total Safety”). In these pages, he explains why the inspectors discovered into 1998 that Iraq produced Gaz VX. Iraq had contradicted, then admitted to have produced of them only 200 liters, then 3900 liters but without however being able to use them as weapons.

In 2002, the inspectors of UNO summarized what they had found in Iraq, in a report/ratio written by the analyst Kenneth Katzman. Between 1991 and 1994, the inspectors discovered forty Laboratoire S secrecies of nuclear research like three clandestine programmes of enrichment of Uranium.

Hans Blix, on January 27th, 2003, affirmed in his report/ratio that the inspectors of UNO had discovered, at the end of 2002, that Iraq of Saddam Hussein produced Gaz VX as well as a gas close to the Mustard gas, the thiodiglycol as well as ballistic missiles. Some of these missiles Al-Hussein (derivative of the Scud) were destroyed in front of the media a few weeks before the invasion.

The situation post-war period

Currently, in the United States and the United Kingdom, several investigations are in hand in order to determine the responsibilities in the revealing for false informations, the such reports/ratios of pre-war period exaggerated on the presence of weapons of massive destruction in Iraq, reason which the United States and the United Kingdom had called upon to justify their armed intervention. the CIA is blamed. Teams of the CIA were sent in Iraq to find evidence, after more than two months of unfruitful research. Various commissions open running July 2003, in the United Kingdom and the United States, in connection with the false documents confirming the presence of weapons of massive destruction subjected by these governments to their population. The January 22nd 2004, Dick Cheney, American vice-president, reaffirms that the mode of Saddam Hussein was related to the terrorist network Al-Qaida. It also maintains that Iraq continued development programs of weapons of massive destruction, although few evidence were discovered after more than 6 months of presence on the Iraqi territory by the American army and its allies. The January 23rd 2004, David Kay, in charge of the search for weapons of massive destruction in Iraq by the government of the United States, resigns and proclaims that there was not production of weapons of massive destruction since the end of the first War of the Gulf - all while not condemning the military intervention. George Tenet, director of the CIA, names a substitute, Charles Duelfer. Colin Powell confirms finally that there are few chances that there were weapons of massive destruction in Iraq. Little before this resignation, British the Prime Minister Tony Blair was reaffirmed convinced of the presence of WMD in Iraq in front of journalists.

The October 6th 2004, Charles Duelfer makes a report/ratio public in which he affirms that the mode of Saddam Hussein did not have a Armes of massive destruction and since 1991 had not manufactured any, and especially which he did not have either the capacity to produce. The report/ratio creates a international Scandale by mentioning the name of personalities suspected of having profited from occult funds on behalf of the mode of Saddam Hussein, in particular the French politician Charles Pasqua.

The January 12th 2005, the spokesperson of the White House, Scott McClellan, announces the end of the American mission of search for Armes of massive destruction in Iraq, without to have found trace of prohibited weapons.

The inspector chief of the mission ISG, Charles Duelfer, testifies that “one cannot draw aside the possibility that the WMDS were transferred in Syria. ” It quotes “a big number of credible evidence”.

The ISG affirms in his report/ratio that among the WMDS sought, eighty tons of Mustard gas would appear which disappeared from the Iraqi warehouses.

Approximately 500 ammunition chemical going back to before 1991 but not classified WMD were discovered in the country like several tons of various chemical.

The general George Sada, second assistant of the Iraqi air forces with in the chair Saddam Hussein, wrote a book, Saddam' S secrecies , in which he explains why he collected testimonys of pilots of Boeing 747 which used their planes to transport WMDS in Syria, in February 2003. A column of trucks also made the way, with the least heavy material. The CIA has indeed satellite images showing of the columns of Iraqi trucks crossing the border, at the same period.

One of the information sources, Rafid Ahmed Alwan, Iraqi chemical engineer, who made defection in Germany in 1999 and was questioned by BND provided false information accrediting the existence of a chemical program of armament. That was revealed with the general public in 2007.

Since 2003: Occupation of Iraq and guerilla

Occupation of Iraq

See also: Attacks after the invasion of Iraq, Guerilla Iraqi

After their victory, the troops of the coalition sought to stabilize the situation in Iraq by installing a provisional military government, the provisional Autorité of the coalition. Nevertheless, the population is massively hostile with the troops of the coalition and of the conflicts occur. Moreover, the majority of the cities are in a difficult situation: plunderings, confrontations, settlings of score…

and according to the muhafazat.

In April 2003, the former chief of the American central Command, the general Tommy Franks, decides to suspend the Capital punishment in Iraq.

The May 22nd 2003, the Résolution 1483 voted by the safety advice of Nation-Plain requires of the occupying powers to work with the formation of a provisional administration “until an internationally recognized and representative government can be established by the Iraqi people”.

The May 23rd 2003, the American administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, announced the dissolution of the Iraqi army and other organizations of safety of Saddam Hussein, which will be regarded thereafter as one of the most serious errors of this one. The May 31st 2003, the United States announces that they would occupy Iraq militarily longer than what had been announced before.

During the month of June 2003, the American army, which undergoes many attacks on behalf of the Iraqi civil rebellion and terrorist groups, launches a named operation Scorpion of the desert , trying to take the control of the country.

The United States requires of the civil population to deliver some 5 million weapons to them which would have been entrusted to them by the mode of Saddam Hussein and in the case of threaten them of imprisonment a refusal. Only a few thousands of weapons are delivered to them.

The June 17th 2003, a group hitherto unknown, the Iraqi Brigades of resistance , asserts the attacks against the American occupying army. This group declares itself independent of former president Saddam Hussein, nonislamist, and affirms being a “group of young Iraqis and Arabs who believe in the unit, the freedom and the arabity of Iraq”. Thereafter, of many groups of rebellion appear. It is thought that they recruit many partisans in the members of the old military forces and paramilitaries of the mode Baath sist, the United States having been long to plan to recruit them in order to maintain the order.

Running July 2003, the United States requires of several countries and UNO to help them in the control of the country by the sending of armed troops, but the latter refuse, not wanting to guarantee the invasion considered to be illegal of Iraq.

The July 23rd 2003, hundred days after the end declared by the occupant, of the war, Amnesty International publishes an article, exhibitor whom the human rights are still not respected by the American army in Iraq (Torture S, assassinations, detentions under bad conditions of prisoners, even cleared): to see this Web page

The July 25th 2003, Moqtada al-Sadr, Shiite dignitary considered as influential, request with Najaf, withdrawal of the American occupying forces , in front of a crowd of one hundred thousand faithful.

The August 19th 2003, an attack with the trapped truck destroyed the seat of the the United Nations to Baghdad making the 22 dead of which special representative of the general secretary of the the United Nations in Iraq, Brazilian the Sergio Vieira of Mello. This attack marks the beginning of a cycle of violences continuous in the country.

The December 14th 2003, Saddam Hussein, is stopped by the American army. It is seen tired, with a long beard. It is transferred in a secret place held for interrogations. But its arrest, although being a success for the forces of the United States, the armed uprising does not discourage.

At the end of January 2004 in Iraq, of the quasi daily attacks always strike the military forces of occupation and the civilians working for them.

In January and February 2004, the attacks with the booby traps of the points of recruitment of the police force and the Iraqi army multiply. Certain analysts think that rebels want to thus prevent any help with the foreign occupying forces on behalf of their fellow-citizens.

The February 15th 2004, a whole of adjoining countries of Iraq (Syria, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey), after a meeting with Kuwait, require solemnly, the withdrawal of the coalition of the occupying forces and the assistance of UNO, to return the country to its inhabitants. The June 8th 2004, after rough discussions, a resolution of the Safety advice of UNO is adopted on the conditions of the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq, envisaged the June 30th. The temporary government must prepare elections, envisaged at the beginning of 2005. The resolution stipulates that it will be able to ask the departure of the coalition, but this one can always intervene with each time it esteem necessary.

The June 28th 2004, Paul Bremer, administrator of occupation, transmits sovereignty to the Iraqi temporary Gouvernement, two days before the date envisaged, in order to avoid the attacks. The temporary government obtains the economic control of oil, but not that of the eighteen billion dollars of American assistance.

The May 25th 2006, George W. Bush and Tony Blair recognize their errors in Iraq. The US president in particular stated that its remarks had “ sent bad signals ”, that “ the things were not held as had hoped for we ” and that “ the largest error, at least with regard to the implication of our country, it is Abou Ghraïb ”.

the terrorist attack more the meurtière since the beginning of the war occurs on August 14th, 2007 causing 572 dead and 1562 wounded.

Taking of hostages by armed groups (2004)

As of May 2004, the whole world learns how with horror decapitation of Nick Berg, become aware of the determination of the takers of hostages of Iraq to apply their threats. Experts of the American CIA will affirm to recognize the voice of Zarkaoui in the torturer, however the quality of the video is bad, and Zarkaoui is supposed to carry a wooden leg following an accident, according to these same experts. What is not the case on the video. The video will circulate even on Internet.

During the summer 2004, removals multiply in Iraq, creating a climate of insecurity for all, amenable to the Member States of the coalition or not. The kidnappers belong to the guerilla ( mouqawama , Iraqi “resistance”) carried out by former baasists of the services of Saddam Hussein, foreign djihadists, islamist and salafists…

August 20th, 2004, two French journalists, Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot, are removed in the south of Baghdad by an unknown group, the Islamic army in Iraq . An international campaign claims their release: the representatives of the Moslems of France, the committee of the Moslem oulémas (sunnites) and Yasser Arafat ask for the release of the two French journalists. A demonstration of support takes place on August 30th in Paris. Tens of people express on September 15th, 2004 in the streets of the Iraqi capital to require the release of the two French hostages. The kidnappers claim the abrogation of the law on the religious signs at the school qualified “injustice and of aggression against Islam and personal freedom in the country of supposed freedom” . The group asserts the assassination of several hostages, in particular that of the Italian journalist Enzo Baldoni, and even obtained the withdrawal of Iraq of the Filipino troops in exchange of the release of a truck-driver. The organization publishes an official statement on Internet on September 14th, 2004, which reproaches France for being enemy Moslems; to be intervened in Algeria at the time of the elections of 1992; to oppress the Moslems in Africa; to support Israel; to be opposed to the Islamic veil; and finally to have famished the Iraqi people with the Embargo of the years 1990.

September 15th, 2004, the American army slackens 275 prisoners of the prison of Abou Ghraib.

Recent operations

The not disarming guerilla, the troops of the coalition start operations whose scale is increasingly large. In the month of August 2004, the Holy City of Najaf is the stake of a seat and urban combat, whose epicentre is the Mausolée of Ali, and the Trésor S (rare books, jewels, objects of Orfèvrerie, precious stones) which it contains. The keys of the treasure which had been indeed held by family Al-Rufaïe for several centuries would have been subtilized by Moqtada al-Sadr, whose militia fought against the forces of the coalition around the mausoleum.

Successes of the guerilla are visible in the exported quantities of oil, which had never been also low for several decades. In January 2006 is created the Advisory counsel of Moudjahidines in Iraq.

In addition to the terrestrial operations, aviation intervenes punctually, 285 bombs and missiles released into 2004,404 into 2005,229 into 2006,237 from January 1st to May 15th, 2007.

Civil war?

According to a report/ratio published the February 2nd 2007 by the Intelligence Community, one can read there:

the community of the information judges that the term of +guerre civile+ does not represent in an adequate way complexity of the conflict in Iraq. However, the term of +guerre civile+ describes in a correct way of the element-keys of the conflict in Iraq, which include an identity hardening in each community, a change in the phenomenon of violences, a denominational mobilization and displacements of population .

However, the majority of the Western mediums use the expression " today; war civile" to indicate the Iraqi conflict.

Program American of against-guerilla

Several journalists of investigation revealed in 2005 the installation in the current of the year 2004 by the United States of a program of against-guerilla baptized Opération " Salvador" option;.

Its objective is to terrorize the marked populations to support the rebellion sunnite. It aims at forming Iraqi militia Shiite, called " death squads" (death squads), in order to achieve these missions.

The formation of these troops, supervised by James Steele, person in charge of the formation of similar components during the civil war of El Salvador in the years 1980, is strongly correlated in time with the appearance of handcuffed and killed corpses sunnites of a ball in the head.

According to the journalist Paul Moreira, the United States would have thus contributed to start the civil war.

Assessments of the war

Consequences

See also: Impacts noted after the invasion of Iraq

Consequences for the American army

This third war of the Gulf because of the losses in the American troops (3848 at November 5th, 2007), which for this type of conflict is relatively weak (see Guerre of Algeria, Algerian Civil war, Guerre of Chetchnia), but which médiatiquement night with the image of the army best equipped with the sphere.

the lack of forces on the ground for a long-term massive operation is made feel by a large-scale use of the reservists and an increase in the duration of rotations.

the budget granted by the Sénat of the United States to the Department of Defense was largely increased, but the financing of the operations in Iraq in increase makes that economies are required in other military programs while the wear of the material is accelerated.

Consequences for the Iraqi army

There were a total reorganization of the army and security forces (Republican guard, police force…) formed and reconstituted by the American army. This new army re-enlisted many soldiers of the old Iraqi army.

the soldiers have more freedom with respect to their officers; at the beginning of the war, the soldiers depended entirely on their Officier S because those had in their possession the identity papers of their soldiers, which obliged them to fight.

Effects on the policy of the United States

This war causes disorders in the American public opinion following the continual lies of the Bush administration, to justify her military intervention.

the American policy is strongly criticized in the world. A number impressing of anti-American demonstrations and against the war take place. Even the late pope Jean-Paul II felt the need to meet the US president with an aim deliberated to draw the public attention on the consequences of a war.

Several politicians resign (of which Colin Powell) because of the dissension between them and the Bush administration.

Effects on the Iraqi policy

Fine of the policy followed by Saddam Hussein and her family.

Fine of the Bâas party.

Closing or reduction of the activities of the Iraqi embassies throughout the world according to the orders of Washington.

Installation of an Iraqi provisional government (under the supervision of Paul Bremer, American proconsul, administrator general and civil of Iraq) chosen by the coalition which aims to reorganize the Iraqi policy and to introduce a “democratic” government including/understanding members of the various ethnicities in Iraq (Shiites, sunnites and Kurds).

Vote of a constitution which is accepted to 75% (mainly by the Kurds and the Shiites).

First " elections libres" since more than 50 years (although the free character of these elections is prone polemics because of the supervision of the United States).

Formation de facto of an autonomous State to the Kurdistan because since good a long time, the Kurds of the North-East of Iraq wants their independence and was threatened by the mode of Saddam Hussein.

Economic consequences for the United States

Increase in the military expenditure.

Beaucoup of american companies grew rich thanks to the contracts generated by the military intervention (such as Halliburton), and plans to be able to take care of the rebuilding of the country devastated by the war and the attacks.

Effects on the Iraqi economy

spectacular Rise of the rough National product following the stop of the economic sanctions and the investment for the rebuilding (18,4 billion US dollars in 2002,47 billion in 2006).

the number of private companies in Iraq last east of 8.000 in 2003 to 35.000 in 2006 following the liberalization of the economy.

Investissements in oil by foreign companies, which prevents Iraq from fully being given this resource, investments which Iraqi cannot refuse because the oil refineries are under the control of the special forces and the American and British armies.

Sabotages of factories and refineries during the war which generate a fall of the oil exportations throughout the world and a gasoline shortage, even in the oil-bearing areas of Iraq.

Shortage of the productions and imports of the products of first need, food, drugs, etc

Pollution water by the firing of several oil refineries and by the combat, which prevents the farmers from sufficiently producing.

Introduction of a new Iraqi currency replacing the old Iraqi dinars to the effigy of Saddam and the “Swiss dinar” having runs in the North of the country.

Disappearance of tourism (already quasi-non-existent under the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein) because of the state of war and the permanent insecurity.

Effects on the worldwide economy

Rise of the oil prices.

Upheaval of the status quo related to the Geopolitical of oil.

Social consequences in Iraq

This war made thousands of victims on the Iraqi side and much of refugees very lost by fleeing their country towards Syria, Turkey and Iran (which only counts with him approximately 200.000 Iraqi refugees).

Return to the political countries of refugees (opposites with the capacity of Saddam Hussein), exiled in the adjoining countries or elsewhere in the world, it is the case of Ahmed Chalabi which was exiled in America.

It there had many taking of hostages made by Islamic radical groups, that is to say to finance their operations, to destabilize the countries of the coalition or to make release certain their militiamans imprisoned by the coalition.

Reorganization of the various public services and return to the school of Iraqi youth (boys and girls!) in spite of the destruction of the infrastructures, the insecurity which reigns in the country and the death of many professors and pupils.

For the first time of the women has access to stations in the government, as well as the men, though of much lower number; it is the case of Mrs. Narmine Othmane (minister of environment), Mrs. Jouane Fouad Maasoum (Minister of Transport), Mrs. Souheila Abed Jaafar (Minister for the emigrants and of moved), a third of the deputies are women, a record in the area.

Damage with the civil infrastructures: the departments of health are plundered their beds, ambulances, equipment, electrical installations (etc), the hospitals are overloaded whereas the doctors miss cruelly. The roads, powerplants, and they centers of communications are destroyed.

Increase in the general insecurity (plunderings, fires and taken of hostage), following the total disorganization (or almost) of the various public services such as the police force, which is currently formed by instructors of the American army.

Fine of the sanctions of the United Nations, end of the embargo (see the program Oil against food).

Arrived of ONG such as the Red Cross, the Red Crescent…

Release of prisoners held sometimes since of tens of years and not having more identity, in the General headquarter of the Iraqi military Intelligence services.

Imprisonment of quantities of other people on simple denunciation, personal revenges, etc.

spectacular Acroissement of the number of families reaching the minimal threshold of poverty, because of unemployment, plunderings, displacements forced.

Effects on higher education

Already under the mode of Saddam Hussein higher education in Iraq suffered:

the wages of a professor was to the maximum of 200 US dollars, too to live much little.
Of many qualified professors was left the universities to become civil servant.

Today the wages increased but remains insufficient. The depressions are accentuated by the psychic stress caused by the fear of persecution. Often the professors in Iraq do not dare to say their opinion publicly. Since the war in 2003, more than 200 professors were killed, of the libraries were plundered, the library of the historical philosophical faculty of the University of Baghdad for example was entirely burned. According to UNESCO, 84% of the infrastructures of the institutions of education were damaged by the war and plundering, this with 50.000 new students, boys and girls, integrating the universities each year. The admission of the students is done without consideration of their qualification, which involves an overload of the universities, in particular in Baghdad. The 21 Iraqi universities count approximately 250.000 students. One considers that it misses 60.000 computers, 2000 laboratories scientific as well as many books and school material. Since 1990,40% of the professors among best trained their country left and for 20 years the Iraqi universities and research centres have been isolated from the international scientific community. Only 7% of the teaching body are professors. Professors are obliged to have a second source of revenue. Their qualifications are often limited to a level graduates, whereas a master or better a doctorate would be the standard. Quality also misses at the academic level. Work of diplomas in history for example is often limited to a listing of historical events. No criticism or contribution appears, being cruelly lacking with the programs. Congresses, conferences and forum are almost non-existent, without speaking about a " life of étudiant". There are hardly contacts towards outside. Many scientists and students miss knowledge of languages for an international exchange. Officially there do not exist any more restrictions concerning the school program, in spite of a strategic lack of planning.

Social consequences apart from Iraq

Increase in the number of terrorist attacks in the world on incentive of Usama Bin Laden which invites the Moslems to be raised against the Moslem countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Pakistan…) because of their support for the war in Iraq.

Improvement of safety in Kuwait.

This war in Iraq divided Europe, creating discords between the committed countries or which engaged in Iraq (the United Kingdom, Poland, Spain…) and those which were against the armed intervention (Germany, Belgium, France…).

Humane consequences

Opening of an American humane center in Kuwait.

Fine of the embargo set up at the end of the first war of the Gulf (Kuwait, 1991).

Big risks of cholera and respiratory diseases due to the weak access to drinking water and the food products.

Closings of the close borders (in particular that of Syria) except letting pass from the humane convoys.

Come from many ONG: the Office of Civil Rebuilding and Humanitarian Aid (ORAH) directed by Jay Garner, the World food program (which sends tons of flour of corn), the UNICEF (which sends water convoys and drugs), the United Nations, Teams of Assistance to Disaster (DART), the Center of Humanitarian operation (HOC), the the World Health Organization…

inoperative medical System.

Effects on the Iraqi culture

Of many historical centres was destroyed by the American bombardments, the combat and plunderings.

All that represents Saddam or her mode was ransacked by the population.

Religious consequences in Iraq

Resurgence of the old religious conflicts between Shiites and sunnites for the seizure of power and the installation of a religious mode, after the fall of Saddam.

Of new Islamic laws is put at execution; for example the port of the Islamic veil for the women, who was not obligatory any more before the war.

Assassinations of many Shiite religious leaders such as the Ayatollah Mouhammad Baqir Al-Hakim and Abdoul Majid Al Khoï (Iraqi Shiite chief moderated and pro-Westerner, income of exile after 12 years).

Ecological consequences

Deterioration of the water pipelines of the Iraqi main cities and degradation of the catchment areas of the Persian Gulf, the Tiger, Euphrate and the Caspian Sea due in particular to the construction of new pipelines.

Pollution of the arable lands and the ground water by the sabotage of the oil wells and the voluntary opening of the pipelines.

Others

See also: Attacks after the invasion of Iraq

For the IFRI, 1, “the religious cause overrides the national cause. ”

The capture of Saddam Hussein by the army of the United States, would have however, for certain observers on the spot, allowed a bigger part of the population not to be afraid of reprisals and to return in the rows of the guerilla.

According to Robert Fisk, in October 2005, the American army completely lost the control of the situation. Rebels of weapons walk in Baghdad at the great day to 200 meters of the green zone.

In October 2006, the Organization of the Islamic conference (OCI) writes the “Document of Mecque”. Signed by Shiite Iraqi dignitaries and sunnites, the text launches a call at the end of interdenominational violences, the release of all the hostages and the safeguarding of the unit of Iraq.

Losses of the Coalition

According to icasualties.org the assessment would be, with the October 16th 2007, of:

approximately 4133 died in the coalition including 642 by accidents or diseases
More 26 000 wounded in the coalition of which 11 000 seriously

3831 American soldiers (assessment at October 16th, 2007), 170 British soldiers and as many soldiers of allied countries found death in Iraq since the March 20th 2003, for a total of approximately 4133 dead allied soldiers whereas the 1 {{er}} George Bush May 2003 had proclaimed the end of the “'' major operations of combat ''”.

With these figures, it would be good not to neglect the number of “Mercenaire”, of workers, diplomats and foreign civilians died in Iraq, the figure of the victims exceeds the 1000 dead ones and nearly 13.000 wounded.

That makes of it the most fatal war for the the United States since the Guerre of Vietnam. On average since March 2003, 2,3 American soldiers lose the life each day on the Iraqi ground (as comparison: 20 per day during the war of Vietnam, 10 per day in the rows of the French Army during the war of Algeria).

The annual statement of account break up like Ci:

In 2003: 486 died and 2408 wounded
In 2004: 848 died and 8001 wounded
In 2005: 846 died and 5947 wounded
In 2006: 824 dead and 5676 wounded
on November 5th, 2007 a study has to show that 2007 are the most fatal year for the American forces. 872 soldiers fell to the engagements since January.

Into semi-2006, 135 000 men is 17 brigades whose 6 of the National guard of the United States are deployed, only 50 000 are really operational in the whole of Iraq, the remainder dealing with the Logistique. These manpower are reinforced by approximately 70 000 contractual deprived, for which no account of the losses is held.

According to the magazine raid , in May 2006, one counted in the armed forces of the United States:

2400 died and 17 469 wounded, of which 8 137 rather or seriously wounded being afflicted with permanent handicaps, is a total of approximately 20 000 soldiers put out of combat, approximately 12 % of manpower engagés ; - It should be noted that with rotations, on the whole, more than one half-million of American soldiers one makes a turn of duty in Iraq ;
130 lost helicopters, including 14 CH-47 Chinook and 52 AH-64 Apache (more than 56 million dollar the unit), and 118 helicopters endommagés ;
on 30 000 terrestrial vehicles, close to 1 400 were destroyed, including 49 tanks Abrams M-1 (142 damaged) and 450 light vehicles Hummer (430 damaged).

The material losses are due to the accident and acts of war, but also to the conditions of use (dust, heat). One estimates that the maintenance of the helicopters represented, since the beginning of the operations of Afghanistan in 2001,2,6 billion dollar, and total maintenance for 2006 is evaluated to 20 million work hours.

Human account for the Iraqis

The number of Iraqis victims of violences is unknown, but estimates speak of more than 60 000 died according to Iraq Body Count. Georges Bush estimated in 2005 the number of died at 30 000.

The Iraqi national army and the police force, in March 2007, would have 17.000 killed soldiers and police officers.

In October 2006, the medical check The Lancet estimates the number of deaths Iraqi ascribable with the war with 655 000. Comparing death rates in the hearths of 1982 individuals in 2006 (death certificates with the support) with official figures of 2003, the study shows that mortality would have doubled during the war, passing from 5,5 to 13,3 per thousand; this study nevertheless is strongly criticized by many associations and international organizations, including by Iraq Body Count.

According to the estimates of UNO in April 2006, almost 2 million Iraqis (that is to say Iraqi on eight) fled their country because of violences. 1 million found refuge in Syria, 750.000 in Jordan and 150.000 in Egypt and 500 with the the United States. Moreover, according to HCR, 1,8 million Iraqis were moved inside the territory. Nearly the quarter of the Iraqis were thus obliged to give up their residences since the beginning of the war.

Financial costs

The financial costs of the war in Iraq can partly be calculated starting from the budgetary measurements voted by the Congrès of the United States in addition to the operational budgets. The Department of Defense is also authorized to use this operational budget to finance the war.

Many American associations, for the majority hostile with the war, follow closely the evolution of the overcosts related to the war. Their estimates turn around 350 billion dollars and integrate also indirect expenses (pensions, allowances…)

In his speech in front of the Room of the Representatives of the United States the honorary senator of the Massachusetts, James P. Mc Govern, estimates the cost of the war at 246 million dollars per day (either 2847$ a second). He recalls that the direct expenditure (which does not represent the whole of the costs) was assembled to:

2004 : 77,3 billion dollars
2005: 87,3 billion dollars
2006: 100,4 billion dollars

It identifies two scenarios for the future:

an immediate decision of withdrawal (of Iraq and Afghanistan) would cost 371 billion dollars.
the extension by four years of the operations would involve a cost of 1000 billion dollars.

To supplement this report, Linda Bilmes and Joseph Eugene Stiglitz (“Nobel Prize” of economy in 2001), two researchers of Harvard and Columbia, reactualized a study on the costs to come from the war to Iraq. They identify from now on overall costs of 2.267 billion dollars.

The budgetary costs (in dollars) which they identify break up as follows:

336 billion already spent.
389 billion operation costs for the future operations
127 billion for the allowances and pensions of the war veterans
160 billion for the demobilization and the repositioning defense

The economic costs break up according to the authors in the following way:

355 billion shortfall for the economy related to the deaths, disabilities, differentials of costs of the purchases related to the war…
300 billion related to the price the Oil in the form of transfers to the producer countries.
150 billion related to a less economic performance related to very the high prices.
450 billion rising from the assignment the budgets to the war rather than with productive expenditure or the reduction from the Deficit.

In its number of December 25th, 2006/January 1st, 2007 the Time magazine estimates at 502 billion dollars the expenditure of the USA in the war against terrorism.

Evolution of the American opinion

In June 2005, the American public opinion seems to be in dissension with the policy of the United States in Iraq: according to an investigation published on June 27th, 2005 by ABC/Washington Post, a majority of Americans disapprove the management of the situation in Iraq. More than one American out of two thinks that George W. Bush “intentionally misled” the American opinion on the reasons to engage this war.

57 % of them estimate that the Bush administration exaggerated the threat of the Armes of massive destruction.
All in all, 53 % of the questioned people judge that the conflict was not worth the sorrow of it.
However, always according to the same survey, 58 % estimate that the American soldiers must remain in Iraq to restore the order.
Only 41 % require the withdrawal of these troops. (source: Le Monde and AFP, June 28th, 2005).

The September 24th 2005, 100 with: 300000 demonstrators had gathered with Washington D.C to protest against American engagement in Iraq. In this difficult context (Hurricane Katrina) for George W. Bush, a Gallup Poll showed that 63 % of the Americans wanted the return of the soldiers in their country.

One month later, the Wall Street Journal reveals the results of a survey even more unfavourable to the American intervention: 53 % of the Americans think that the war in Iraq was “an error”, against only 34 % which estimate that it was justified.

A new survey ordered by CNN at the beginning of the month of August 2006 shows that the partisans of the war are very minority: 36% still approve the conflict in Iraq whereas 60% reject it.

The January 10th 2007, at the time of a short televised speech, the president announces that 21 500 additional servicemen will be sent in Iraq to allow a return to faster peace. This decision runs up against a congress and a hostile public opinion and mainly skeptic with this step. That would give American manpower to the level of December 2005 at the time of the legislative elections in this country.

The January 27th 2007, a new demonstration is organized by the collective Unis for peace and justice against the war and the sending of reinforcements armed in Iraq; it joins together several thousands of Americans in the capital. At the time of the fourth birthday of the war in Iraq, more: 50000 people expressed on March 17th, 2007 at Washington DC against the maintenance of the American troops; they ravelled with the call of Answer ( Act Now to Stop War and End Racism ) of the White House with the Pentagone.

March 28th, 2007, the American Senate vote withdrawal of the American troops of Iraq from here the month of March 2008.

April 26th, the law is definitively adopted by the American senate for a withdrawal of the troops as from October in against part of a budgetary extension of 124 billion dollars.

May 2nd, 2007 (that is to say 4 years day for day after the declaration announcing the end of the “principal operations of combat”), president George W. Bush as envisaged announces in a short televised speech that he opposes his veto to the law voted by the democratic majority some days before estimating that “to propose a calendar for a withdrawal is to propose a date for a failure and that would be irresponsible”.

The withdrawal of the troops of Iraq is then supported by 56% of the Americans according to a survey NBC/Wall Street Journal published on April 26th, 2007 (only 37% support president Bush on this point). The survey also states that 55% of the Americans do not believe any more in the victory in Iraq (against 36% who believe in it and 9% which does not decide). One will be able to still read there that about half of probed find that the situation in Iraq worsened these last three months (37% estimate that it is stable and 12% think that it improves).

In its leading article of July 8th, 2007, the NewYork Times affirmed: It is time for the United States to leave Iraq, without more time than one should not any for the Pentagon to organize a methodical withdrawal. Thus, one of the most influential newspapers of the country called with the withdrawal of the American forces of Iraq.

October 27th, 2007 of new peace marches are organized in the American main cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, etc). 10.000 to 30.000 people gathered only in San Francisco;

In Redacted (2007), realized by Brian De Palma, is evoked the feeling of abandonment of the American recruits
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