Roberta Wohlstetter (born in 1912 under the name of Roberta Morgan) is an American historian specialized on the question of the military Renseignement. Its more famous work is Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision . It is also the woman of Albert Wohlstetter, analyst with
RAND Corporation and thinker of dissuasion.
Contribution with the strategic thoughtIn its book Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision , Roberta Wohlstetter seeks to establish the causes of the warning failure (generic term which indicates the failure of an intelligence service to envisage a surprised attack) of Pearl Harbor. It releases from the " pathologies of communication" who are responsible for this failure:
“noise” ( noise ): the difficulty of paying attention to relevant information in the middle of thousands of information.
- “prejudices” ( preconceptions ) and generally incapacity to put itself at the place of the enemy ( mirror imaging ).
The intelligence services interpret the data through:
of the representations, or even a system of representation when it is about an ideological fight)
- of the historical analogies: such as the will not to reproduce " Munich" , tested in 1956 with Suez, 1962 with Cuba, or in 1995 with Srebrenica
- personal experiences: as those of Anthony Eden who projected on the nationalization of Suez Canal in 1956 his memory of the annexation of Sudètes in 1938.
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