Robert E. Lucas

Robert Emerson Lucas Junior (September 15th 1937 -) is a economist American born with Yakima, in the State of Washington.

Founder of the New classical economics, it belongs to the École of Chicago.

He received the “Nobel Prize” of economy in 1995, for his work on the rational Anticipations and his famous “ Critique of Lucas ”.

Although it was predestined to make studies of engineer, to the Massachusetts Institute off Technology, it is turned, for lack of purses, towards the Social sciences. He will say that, to quote Dominique Roux: “when it got into the train for a voyage which was going to last 44 hours to reach the east coast of the the United States, it was certain that it was dirigait towards something of interesting”. He deeply transformed the economy. Primarily known by its work on the rational Anticipations, it also contributed major shares in many fields of the Economic scene like its work on the theory of the investment (with " costs of adjustments marginaux" , 1967), the theory of the endogenous growth (with the " capital humain" , 1988), theory of the valuation of assets and the theory of the money

Contributions in economy

Disappointed by the life, Lucas takes its revenge of this one in the economic scene. It is in this science that it imposes the knowledge of its name and its contributions on any economist. It is of him that comes some considerable criticisms from the macroeconomics keynésienne (discipline which reigned as a Master without division lasting nearly five decades). However, it was essential like a giant of the economic scene not only by its offensives carried out with regard to keynesianism, but also by its rich and profitable contributions.

Burning defender of the Liberalism, promoter of the New traditional macroeconomics, his theses will forge, with the breathlessness of the thought keynésienne, the intellectual context of macroeconomic research or the new paradigm of research in economy. Moreover, some spoke even about a revolution kuhnienne.

Among the contributions of the engine of the new traditional macroeconomics, one counts:

New classical economics

This new economic school of thought is associated with work founders of Lucas. The term of `new theory traditional' aims at giving to the honor the research program that Keynes had aimed at disqualifying - it is Keynes, will say Lucas, which constituted a turning in the development of the theory whereas Hayek had correctly defined the way to be followed. And constitutes severe criticisms which have, inter alia, chamboulé the theory keynésienne.

Lucas versus Keynésianisme

With the assistance of Sargent, Lucas goes up to the crenel, in the Seventies, with methodological and conceptual criticisms against the thought of the professor of Elton Collège, John Maynard Keynes. Moreover for Lucas, which one must retain of Keynes is less its contribution to the economic theory itself that the role which its ideas played to dam up the expansion of socialism!

Its criticisms are generally summarized at fault three of the thought keynésienne:

the fact of leaving the problems the Chômage in the cyclic analysis of the macroeconomic theory is an unforgivable sin of Keynes, with the eyes of Lucas. And yet, it had outlined it in its book Treatise one Money . In parallel, it makes observations compared to the vision courtermist of John Maynard de Keynes (a static analysis).
Treats Keynes of traitor, because, according to Lucas, it deviates from the logic which it calls “ Discipline of balance ” (expensive expression with Lucas), i.e. paradigm or approaches analysis of the Economic scene until at that time (postulates of behavior optimisator and auditing of the markets…). It is in “Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation”, that Lucas leaves appear its nonapproval and not satisfaction of the Macroéconomie in Keynes and will begin its sabotage by making idea of intertemporal substitution, an important component in the economic analysis.
and finally, it thinks that Keynes with problems on the level of the comprehension of the concepts which it itself created: Full employment and involuntary unemployment.

He proposes to give up the framework of analysis of Keynes, because stuffed imperfections and confusions. Lucas responsabilise this English mathematician-economist (Keynes) and his sympathizers to have diverted direction the economic theory to embark it in mathématico-econometric constructions of models. In answer to these criticisms, the economists of sensitivity keynésienne counteract by proposing another framework of analysis, commonly called the Nouvelle economy keynésienne.

Critical of Lucas

He thinks that the macroeconometric models keynésiens as built are good only for the economic Prévisions not to explain the economic policies. He suggests introducing model strcturels , i.e. a model where the agents are rational and evolving/moving in a fluctuating environment. According to him, this concept must constitute the basic principle of macroeconomic modeling.

Its criticism was largely accepted and was at the base of a radical transformation of the macroeconomic modeling.

Theory of rational anticipation

Popularized by Lucas, the theory of rational Anticipations was introduced by John Muth in 1961, to indicate the idea according to which the agents are equipped with the capacities to anticipate rationally with information of which they lay out the results in their company, catch in the broad sense.

In a basic way until before the contribution of Lucas, one supposed in models that the agents were vague, naive, in short project oneself in the future while basing oneself on the past of the variable concerned. This methodological approach gathers within the theory of the adaptive Anticipations, whose Friedman had used in its models.

It is in “ Expectations and the Neutrality off Money ” that Lucas tackles the problem of rational anticipation and worries about the theory developed by Fridman: it gives rigor to the theory of the incapacity of the monetary policies approached by Milton Fridman, by replacing the assumption of adaptive anticipation by that of rational anticipation. To arrive there, it builds a model with overlapping generations. It proves, in this article, the neutrality of the currency: expensive argument as well with old traditional within the meaning of Keynes as with new traditional. Prove at the same time the thesis supported by Fridman according to which the monetary shocks have incidences, without however that this feature is not one of the solutions suggested by the pellette of the Monetary policy.

Growth and cycle

Although not remaining a long time, the theory of the cyclic fluctuations of Lucas constitutes a major change in the Seventies. This theory quickly will be swept by that proposed by Kydland and Prescott, and yet born in the tread of work of Lucas. The theory lucasienne of cycle is among those which suggest that the element release of the business cycles is a shock. For Lucas, there is fluctuation because there is monetary shock of nature with optimal decisions of the agents.

It shows ingeniousness when it tackles the question of business cycle with the prospect for balance (discipline of balance). And yet before him, one thinks that in fact fields would not lend themselves to such approaches. Lucas relays directly the involuntary problem of Chômage in the second plan, gives it where it should be, i.e. cannot be analyzed apart from the business cycles. With him, the problem of many hours worked remade surface, and this time in force.

Enthusiastic defender of the Liberalism, not by chance, It succeeds in proving that the State does not have any correct role when it is about cycle, because this last is not a dysfunction of the economy, but rather a normal phenomenon.

Thought lucasienne, criticisms hétérodoxes

It will be picturesque for the énième time when it makes leave at the same time the microeconomic base the Macroéconomie. However, this new way of being caught there will pose problem with certain epistemological economic scenes, like Claude Mouchot, which insist on the micro/macro caesura.

In addition, one also classifies it among the economists who think that any master key initially by “fiction”, i.e. in the imaginary one of the scientists. Itself will use these words “has mechanical, imitation economy”, to reduce the more or less succeeded economic theory to ramifications basing itself on an artificial economy.

Moreover, Lucas remains a figure very criticized by the economists of sensitivity different from his, i.e. the economists hétérodoxes. Lucas calls upon a massive amount, in its analyzes, of “complicated mathematics”, expression used by one of its “detractors”. It borrows from the mathematicians of the engineerings their bearing assets on the optimal Contrôle and the Calculus of variations and making possible the theorization of the economic dynamic.

Lucas is a particularly fertile researcher and conformist, who remains one of the economists less known of the commun runs of mortals. Nevertheless, the history will return testimony which he is - with Milton Friedman - three last decades the most influential economists of the XXe century, after the years of domination without division, of the thought of the British economist John Maynard Keynes.

Publications

Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1972. Expectations and the neutrality off money . Newspaper off Economic Theory 4 (April): 103-24.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1973. international Nap obviousness one output-inflation tradeoffs . American Economic Review 63 (June): 326 - 34.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1976. Econometric policy evaluation: With criticism . In The Philips curve and labor markets, ED. Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series one Public Policy 1:19 - 46. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1978. Asset prices in year exchange economy . Econometrica 46 (November): 1429 - 45.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1980. Equilibrium in has pure currency economy . Economic Inquiry 18 (April): 203-20.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1980. Methods and problems in business cycles theory . Newspaper off Money, Credit, and Banking 12 (November, share 2): 696-715.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1981. Studies in business-cycle theory . Cambridge, Farmhouse.: MIT Near.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1982. Interest spleens and currency prices in has two-currency world . Newspaper off Monetary Economics 10 (November): 335 - 59.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1988. One the mechanics off economic development . Newspaper off Monetary Economics 22 (July): 3 - 42.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1996. Nobel reading: Monetary neutrality. Newspaper off Political Economy 104 (August): 661 - 82.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr., and Prescott, Edward C. 1971. Investment under uncertainty . Econometrica 39 (September): 659 - 81.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr., and Rapping, Leonard has. 1969. Real wages, employment, and inflation . Newspaper off Political Economy 77 (September/October): 721-54.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr., and Sargent, Thomas J. , eds. 1981. Rational expectations and econometric practice . 2 flights. Mineapolis: University off Minnesota Near.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr., and Stokey, Nancy L. 1983. Optimal tax and monetary policy in capital year economy without . Newspaper off Monetary Economics 12 (July): 55 - 93.
Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1987. Money and interest in has cash-in-advance economy . Econometrica 55 (May): 491-513.

Others

References and notes

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