Prophecy car-director

A prophecy car-director ( coil-fulfilling prophecy ) is an event which becomes true because one or more people believed it true. She occurs when a belief modified behaviors so that what was not that belief really occurs.

Mechanism

At the origins of prophecy car-director

The concept of prophecy autoréalisatrice was formed by the functionalist sociologist Robert K. Merton starting from the “theorem of Thomas”: " If the men regard situations as real, then they become it in their conséquences". According to Thomas, the individual actions are included/understood in comparison with the " definition of the situation" that those make before acting. As, it does not matter as the individuals are mistaken, that their representations are right or false, because the consequent actions with a belief are identical that this one is right or false.

Operation of prophecy car-director

It is in 1949, in " Social Theory and Social Structure" (translated into French under the title " Elements of theory and method sociologique") that Robert K. Merton developed the concept of prophecy autoréalisatrice starting from the theorem of Thomas. He presents it as follows: “It is, at the beginning, a false definition of the situation which causes a behavior which makes that this initially false definition becomes true”.

With the difference of the " theorem of Thomas" , in this case, in fact thus simply any more the consequences of the belief are true, but the belief which becomes it.

Robert K. Merton explains thus the problems of integration of the Afro-Américain S in the trade unions with the the United States. For Merton, if the Noirs are not not integrated in the trade unions, it is because the Syndicaliste S think that the Noirs do not share the values of the trade union in work lant during the Grève S, but if those are brought to work against the trade union, it is that they are precisely excluded from it.

Self-destroying prophecy

The reciprocal situation of prophecy car-director is called in English “ Coil-defeating prophecy ”, the expression is generally translated “self-destroying prophecy”. This time, it is the fact of announcing an event which thwarts it. It is often considered that the disaster which was to cause the Bogue of the year 2000 was a self-destroying prophecy because the advertisement of a catastrophe made it possible to obtain the mobilization necessary to thwart it. One can mobilize such a reasoning to analyze the French presidential election of 1995, the fact that Edouard Balladur was announced victorious by many newspapers could have caused its defeat.

Examples of prophecies car-directors in various fields

Education

Prophecy car-director can be also used to explain the choice of career of the children by their parents. If a relative thinks of detecting a certain artistic talent at one of his children, it will push this one towards an artistic career. The subsequent success of this artist will be used as reinforcement with the idea that his/her relative with regard to his talent had.

The Effet Pygmalion is a famous form of prophecy car-director, as well as regards Perception S as of realization: indeed, if a Professor is particularly convinced to have good pupils, on the one hand this confidence will make him better appreciate their work, on the other hand this confidence can motivate its pupils, who will make progress.

Economy

The purse makes it possible prophecies to be carried out if they are sufficiently raw. A Monnaie profiting from the confidence of sufficient speculators sees his course increasing, even if it is not really not under-esteemed before. Thus the speculation of George Soros against the frankly was followed enough to make lower the Monnaie in question, which made make Bénéfice S with Soros although the initial analysis seemed doubtful.

One even claims that a Voyante was sufficiently raw by the Trader S of Wall Street so that its prophecies are carried out.

Policy

The influence of the newspapers makes it possible today the Journaliste S to make prophecies car-directors at the time of the elections: thus Daniel Schneidermann perceives the designation of Ségolène Royal like candidate with the French presidential election of 2007 like a prophecy car-director.

Medicine

The Effet placebo makes it possible to cure a person provided that she believes in her cure.

Legends and literature

The oracles of the Pythie were generally car-realizers: they pushed the recipient on the way which led them to the realization of the oracle. On the other hand there are not “Boucle of causality” strictly speaking since the destiny, from the point of view of the Greek mythology, preexists as well to the statement of the oracle as to its realization, which make both of them part.

On the other hand, some Auteur S make use of prophecies to build authentic “Boucle of causality” as well as those of the Paradoxe of the writer: for example in Harry Potter , the Professor of Divination is seen in its Boule of crystal returning visit to the director of the school, and thus will visit him. In the Romance the Hand of Thrawn (saga Star Wars ), Luke Skywalker is seen on a Planet and immediately decides to go there. In the case of the Jedi, prophecies are only partially car-directors since the Jedi can choose to seek to carry them out or not: here, the vision of the future is a recommendation more than one prophecy.

In the same way, self-destroying prophecy is possible in works of fiction: always in the novels Star Wars , Jacen Solo starts a preventive war which prevents the realization of a war moreover large scales of which it had had the vision.

References

Random links: