Geopolitics of oil

The Géopolitique of the Pétrole is closely today related to the perception of the attack of the oil Pic by the great powers, which includes the awakening of the geological limits of the resource; during the 20th century, the motivations were different, taking into account the political nature of the two first oil crises.

To some extent, the topic is crucial since at the same time international and multinational :
- It is inherent in the International relations since the efforts of prospection carried out during the end of the 19th century revealed layers mirific with the the Middle East.
- the worldwide economy, of which five oil companies appear among signal 10, is from now on related to the fate of Multinationale S which placed their interests concerning the black gold in competition.
Taking into account the importance of the stakes, the reactivation of the regional Big game does not escape the development from Théories from the plot concerning the proven Machiavellism or not from the international actors in load from the provisioning.

Stakes

For a country of the world, the peak leaves the prospect for a rarefaction in the future, impacting its Energy independence directly. This underlines the following topics: the access to the oil-bearing Fields of the Middle East, the construction of Pipeline S and Gas pipeline S, oil transport.

The control of the layers

Oil is a data largely taken into account by the strategists Géopolitique S. Indeed, the dependence of the countries towards this product is such as a difficulty of provisioning (cost, reduction in the production…) can in oneself justify a conflict. In addition, a war which breaks supplies oil can thus force the implication of powers, which would have remained neutral if not. In addition, the supply oil of the belligerents has several times influenced on the fate of the weapons, as during the two world wars.

notes :

the difficulties of transport related to the gas confine this hydrocarbon with local considerations of géostratégies , such that of Russia, for example; these situations will thus not be treated in this article which relates to the Pétrole.

the rise of the oil consumption of the China confirms the arrival of the last actor among the already known participants of the Big game reactivated on the geographical whole of the the Middle East and Central Asia where the layer of Bakou is.

the stakes are not restricted in the Middle East, the peninsula of Bakassi having been yielded by Nigeria to Cameroun at the conclusion of the payment of a territorial Revendication underlined by the presence of step less than eight oil companies having ensured the offshore oil rig prospection.

The control of the straits

The Géostratégie of the Détroit S by which the Pétrolier S pass constitutes the second stake, that of oil transport.

The Détroit of Ormuz is at the same time in the zone of influence of Iran as in that of the countries of the Arabic peninsula, for which the United States delegated a fleet wetting permanently in the Persian Gulf, the fifth of the US Navy. The tension is so palpable that even the small islands bordering the strait are the subject of conflicts of Territorial integrity.

The provisioning of the Occident depends very largely on the Suez Canal; those of America of the Panama Canal.

Finally those of Japan and China pass by the Détroit of Malacca, for which the sea routes proved not very sure since this water is the last of the sphere where the Piraterie is practiced. Answering its requirements, the China currently seeks (at the end of 2006) to sign contract with the Thailand to make sign its oil by overland route and avoid the passage by the strait.

In addition, this strait leads to the southernmost China Sea, for which a territorial conflict with episodes implies six residents for the access to the natural resources (oil belongs to these interests).

The security of the provisioning

See also: Procurement, production and distribution Plan of oil, Strategic reserve of oil, Energy independence

Many countries have strategic reserves of oil and/or refined products, to provide for the needs for their armed forces in the event of conflict.

History

The history until the Années 2000 corresponds to first half of the curve of Hubbert: oil is easy there to extract, it is not very expensive and seems available unbounded (price increases of the Baril are a new phenomenon, which appears only at the top of the curve and after 1970): it is already a financial manna for all the actors.

The Big game of the 19th century

British supervision with the American supervision

As of the end of the 19th century, oil was identified like strategic resource. The decision of the British Admiralty, about 1910, to build ships which would consume fuel and either coal was one important moment: the most powerful nation of the world, with the most powerful fleet of the world, had at the time much of coal and not drops of oil. This decision posed the European problems for the remainder of the century. Remainder, whereas the gas belonged to driving energies of the Industrial revolution at the 19th century, oil was not the object of an employment generalized until at the time.

The British offensives of the First World War in Iraq and Palestine aimed at occupying of the territories had a presentiment of like oil rich person. The intervention of Lawrence of Arabia in favor of the Arab Nationalisme illustrates regional making of the Othoman supervision with that of the British Empire.

The French pacification of the Syria ensured France a regular provisioning.

The Syria was defended by the Vichy-native troops against FFL, because the Germany Nazi absolutely needed her oil. Besides this one carried out an offensive in 1942 towards the Russian layers of the the Caucasus to Bakou, and the constitution of the Afrika Korps obeyed partly this logic of conquest of the resources. The allies bombarded several times of oil installations in Bessarabia, this area of Romania having the principal oil reservoirs of the grounds occupied by the Axis. The fuel shortages were an important component in the defeat of the troops Nazis, especially at the extreme end of the war.

This situation of threat of the Axis brings in 1941 to an joint operation between the Red Army and the British army to make safe the oil fields of Iran: it is the Opération Countenance (), which confers on the USSR the supply oil via the Persian Corridor enabling him to resist Barbarossa.

In 1941, the Empire of Japan considered that it was to make the war with the the United States in spite of the disproportion of the forces, then carried out an offensive towards the Indonesia, because it needed the oil which was there (and that it controlled besides never). Let us note besides that one of the big steps of the climbing which ended in the war between the two powers of the Pacific is the moment when the United States prohibited the oil exportation towards Japan.

Post-war period, the United States leaves leader the free world and defined which zones of the world must belong to their zone of influence - the time of the plane of war is finished:
- It is within this framework that Roosevelt binds in 1945 with Ibn Saoud and offers to Arabia, directed by this princely dynasty, a co-operation allowing the exploitation of the oil-bearing fields by the majors U.S., this co-operation being supplied with a military protection; this pact will last during sixty years without stopping, the successive presidents and princes reinforcing it each time. Attest this diplomatic strength the initials of the Aramco adopted since 1944 ( Arabian-American Oil Company), as well as military quartering aiming at stabilizing the areas where the gigantic layers of Ghawar and Burgan are located.
- President Truman, at the beginning of its second mandate, introduced into a speech in January 1949 the creed of the development for the countries of the world. Studied since Alfred Mahan, the Middle East belongs to these priorities and proceeds there on a regional level in the years 1950 a making of the old European colonial powers to an economic supervision under cover of support to the movements of Décolonisation, and economic Coopération. The large oil companies sign with the Pétromonarchie S of the contracts of exploitation.

In 1953, both Allied British and American carry out an joint operation, the Opération Ajax, aiming at preventing the nationalization of the British oil interests in Iran; one could interpret this event as a hinge after which hegemony on the area changes. Ten years later the new Shah launches a policy of reforms named the white Révolution, on which the interaction with the American diplomacy is perceptible.

The Crisis of Suez Canal in 1956 proclamation the emergence of a political will in the Middle East, the dependence of Europe and its political weakness, and devotes the two Large ones in full co-operation as Masters of the play. In 1960, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela create the Organization of the oil exporting countries, in order to gain in power vis-a-vis the oil companies, the Seven Sisters .

On its side, France gaullienne exploits the Foccart networks to ensure via the Françafrique the access to the oil of the Golfe of Guinea for Elf Aquitaine and Total-Fina. Whereas the decolonization of Morocco and Tunisia proceeded without conflict, the hardness of the Guerre of Algeria is ascribable partly with the oil interests of the colonial metropolis, since the layers of the the Sahara had just been discovered the previous decade. In 1962, Charles de Gaulle made sure at the time of the signature of the Accords of Evian that the French interests in the area would be maintained, which includes/understands the industrial and commercial primacy on the layers sahraouis guaranteeing its Energy independence to him.

The trust of the seven sisters

Another manner of perceiving the previous period, instead of reasoning in term of State-nations in competition, is to take the angle of the large oil companies which, of 1913 to 1959, made a Cartel . Once again, the hegemonic reputation of such an agreement plays probably extremely in the aspects of theory of the plot associated on such a subject, for example when it is imagined that the trust made the rain and the good weather on the governments of the countries where the layers were located; however the agreement organized, and nontacit, between these large companies, was an established fact, revealed by the formula introduced by an Italian business man, Enrico Mattei, which by its positions in ENI was brought to denounce the situation maintained Oligopole on the Oil market of 1957. The structure of concentration of these multinationals, related to their vertical integration of the fields addressed by oil industry, of the production to the refining until the distribution, constituted already a form of domination.

Three of the seven result from the reorganizations carried out within the framework of the laws Anti-trust in the USA in 1911 after a judgment of the supreme court: the Standard Oil Company had been separate in geographical sectors.

One can notice that the situation of the world in entry of period, in 1913, is related very largely to the colonial Empires resulting from European metropolises, whereas the process of Décolonisation is engaged with full in 1959; so that it is difficult to distinguish, if abuse of power there were, if he came from the States or the multinationals quoted low.

It is possible, within sight of this first globalisation related to the oil prospection on all the continents of planet, to consider that if the anti-monopoly act prevented the formation of a monopoly on the American territory, it could not be opposed to the formation of an oligopoly on the international market - this situation evolving/moving only at the end of the the Fifties.

Their seizure on a market in full expansion their made it possible to sit considerable profits, which still today one indicates under the name of oil revenue. However, oil remaining easy to extract ( conventional oil , corresponding to first half of the curve of Hubbert), the prices with the pump remained stable and cheap lasting the time of the seven sisters, bringing practices related to the Lifestyle of the age of the observable car on the North-American territory, to quote only him.

Designation

Standard Oil off New Jersey (Esso) ==> become Exxon, then ExxonMobil [[: in: Image: Essologo.gif|logo]].
Royal Dutch Shell, company anglo-Dutchwoman
Anglo-Persian Oil Company () ==> become BP (modulo, with the passage, a fusion with Amoco -) - [[: in: Image: BP old logo.png|logo]].
Standard Oil off New York (Socony) ==> become Mobil, then ExxonMobil.
Standard Oil off California (Socal) ==> become Rafter.
GULF Oil () ==> in major part yielded to Chevron, others with BP and Cumberland Farms - [[: in: Image: Gulf.png|logo]].
Texaco ==> amalgamated with Rafter in 2001 [[: in: Image: Texaco logo.png|logo]]

The foundation of OPEC, ratified the September 14th, 1960, constitutes a reappropriation of the dies of production and decision relating to the Cours of oil, which put a term at the situation of Monopole concerted seven sisters . Following later fusions and acquisitions, the designation of these actors evolved/moved, and their number has decreased (effect of concentration).

Wars of oil since 1973

The occurred successive one of the first and the Second oil crisis, respectively in 1973 and 1979, arrive in a context where the domestic production of oil with Have already reached its oil Pic. The Strategic reserve of oil is founded since 1975. The strategists with the current of the new stakes are thus represented perfectly by these tensions, which induces a redeployment noted of the American interventions on the sphere as from the beginning of the the Seventies. At the conclusion of the two oil crises, the majority of the OECD countries will found strategic crude oil reserves; in various forms, they frequently represent 3 months of consumption of a given country. In the United States, always producing country, this concept is inevitably fuzzier; president G.W. Bush decided in 2007 to make it more formal.

The second oil crisis tightens the relations between the United States and Iran, which carries out consequently a Islamic revolution with the black Friday: whereas the crisis of the hostages seems to dig the gap between the two countries, the Affaire Iran-Countered bearing on sales of weapons will appear among the scandals of the Reagan presidency.

The " counterblow pétrolier" of 1986 is explained partly by the will of the the United States and their means-Eastern allies to put the Soviet Union in bankruptcy: they deliver a economic and financial Guerre by employing the Pétrodollar S and their Saoudi diplomacy. Oil exportations being vital for the Soviet Balance of payments and for the diplomacy of the the Kremlin (to guarantee to the satellite countries a supply oil was one of the means which had the USSR to hold them in political captivity), the Americans succeeded in convincing the Saoudis (who were already their allies in the war in Afghanistan), Emiratis and Koweïtis to strongly increase their production, in order to make fall the courses. The oil price was divided by it by two.

The cost was high for the countries at the origin of this economic offensive. Many small American producers were put in bankruptcy, while the surge of pétrodevises for the countries of the Golfe slows down, causing a severe reduction of their " train of vie". These " secondaires" effects; were perfectly anticipated and accepted by the implied governments, and this policy bore its fruits. The USSR pumped as much oil than it could, but in 1988 its principal layer, Samotlar, started to decline severely, involving the production of the country. The independent source of currencies of the USSR decreased, while at the same time finances of the country were terribly solicited (the Afghan conflict and the military great projects being added to the normal expenditure). Although neglected per many analyzes, this factor was one of most important in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

A collateral effect of this price war was the economic collapse of Iraq, in full war with its neighbor; S. Hussein required that one put an end to this policy, but the United States refused for the reasons above, and bloodless Iraq had to put an end quickly to the war. In front of the refusal of the Occident to come to him economically to assistance, Iraq invades Kuwait, after having informed the United States of them.

The war between Iran and Iraq of the Années 1980 is partly due to the will of Iraq to control frontier resources. The two belligerents attacked tankers in the Golfe, and US Navy had to intervene, at the time of the operation Mante nun, on two platform S Iranian women. The invasion of Kuwait by Iraq at the beginning of the Années 1990 was also at the origin of a war in which the United States intervened to ensure the safety of their provisioning. On this occasion, the president Bush father even proclaimed the geopolitical theory of the Nouvel world order in September 1989; overcome, Iraq was fixed with hard economic sanctions which were attenuated only by the program " Oil against food " . The United States since had a policy of presetting ( cf will infra ).

The successive conflicts as Chetchnia fit partially in the context of the resumption of the above mentioned Big game concerning the routing of hydrocarbons of the Caspian Sea: to read Economic issues as Chetchnia. the Russian oil groups Rosneft and Lukoil have there interests, in particular in the routing by pipeline.

Current awakening

geopolitical Consequences of the oil Peak

Oil being always an important resource for the economies of the various countries of the world, its rarefaction will be able only to exacerbate the tensions known at the 20th century, and particularly in the Middle East which always presents, in 2007, the first world oil resources.

It is probable that the gas and coal will take a big part of the place left by missing oil. The coal resources are more largely distributed in the world; the nations which will be able most quickly to do without cheap oil will gain in independence. It is already the case of China, from which the essence of energy comes from an abundant national coal (the third world reserves).

Lastly, the large actors of oil industry prove to be ready to start the dies of production of oil difficult to extract: deep toilets , to unexploited zones until at the time; a news " Gold rush " black is even evoked in the Arctic.

American geostrategic reaction

One of the strategic assumptions making it possible to include/understand the attack of Iraq by the United States in 2003 relates to the security of the supplies oil for the future. Iraq has in its ground the second largest crude oil reserves of the world, which in addition are relatively easy to extract and refine. A complementary reason is that 15 of the 19 terrorists having perpetrated the Attentats of September 11th, 2001, like its supposed instigator, were Saoudi citizens: the permanence of the presence of the United States in Saudi Arabia was obviously called in question.

This strategy was worked out by the think tank named Projet for the New American Century in which Jeb Bush, Dick Cheney, daN Quayle, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz took part.

To a certain extent, a continuity is observable in the even Western policy states-unienne in this area since the fall of the Shah. This one led to the introduction of an unfavourable mode in the United States, which pushed S. Hussein, at the time in good terms with the Occident, to attack its neighbor. This attack failed, and involved the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. This one involved a new War of the Gulf, and the installation of troops states-uniennes on the ground of Saudi Arabia. This installation led to the Attentats of September 11th, 2001, which themselves were used as pretext to crush the mode of S. Hussein. This defeat involved the concern of its neighbors, of which Iran, which posts in 2006 its will to lay out of a nuclear capacity.

On the other hand, the disengagement of the Armed forces of the United States out of the ground of Saudi Arabia represents a discontinuity, ever observed since 1945.
Pour a share, the report/ratio Cheney of 2001 specified that with the horizon 2020 the world production of oil would be dependant to a total value of 54 to 67% of the layers located in the triangle of oil ( Oil triangle ). In a surprisingly synchronous way, the advanced general headquarter of USCENTCOM moved Riyadh with the Qatar, located at the right in the middle of these reserves.
For another share, this decision must take account of the interior policy of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from now on disturbed: the dependant stakes with the oil revenue are the object of a possible successional conflict in progress, insofar as the princely Famille Saoud, whose bonds are thin with, saw the consequences of September eleven inside its territory by the emergence of a rebellion since 2003, whose preambles were perceptible with the explosion of the Khobar turns going back to 1996.

Futurology of the beginning of

The two preceding century old table makes it possible to establish a Prospective geopolitical, once comparable the theory of the Pic of Hubbert letting perceive a Déplétion, followed by a inescapable Raréfaction of the strategic resource (horizon 2100).

The policies of presetting described low, the the United States or the China, do not prevent the diplomacy activates to continue to be exerted: thus, with the autumn 2003, the United States supported an coup attempt of State against the president Venezuelan Hugo Chavez, who is hardly favorable but firmly constant for them by a majority of his population.

Radiant intensity

The most powerful way to reduce its energy dependence is to reduce its radiant Intensity France for reducing it at least 2% per annum as from 2015 and of 2,5% over 2015-2030.

Principal importers

Currently, the three principal world oil importers are the the United States, the China (importing Net since 1996 and second world consumer since the second quarters 2003) and Japan (second consumer until in 2003). China in particular sees its imports growing of 9% per annum, and consumes already 20% of the energy of the countries of OECD.

For these countries, it is vital of knowing at which price and in which quantities they can receive oil. It can be also very interesting to be able to distribute certain quantities to allies in the need.

Policy of presetting: the United States

Two of the principal oil consumers in the world follow a policy of presetting in the oil-bearing zones. For a few years, the the United States have carried out military operations so as to occupy a favorable position in these zones. These operations replace the “active diplomacy” which they carried out before.

The Central Asia as the Middle East is the principal areas concerned: the Middle East because it has the most important proven reserves, the Central Asia because she was considered, a few years ago, like the most promising area. Thus, Afghanistan is occupied since 2001. Several countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus accommodate US troops or signed cooperation agreements. But the hopes are disappointed, since in 2002, BP announced that the unexploited layers of Caspian did not conceal 200 billion barrels as hoped, but 39 billion an oil of bad quality.

In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, which has the third reserves of the world. Moreover, it gives them a right to watch on all the surrounding countries:

the the Caucasus (oil of Bakou and pipelines of Central Asia towards Europe):
on the Iran (taken tortures some with Afghanistan);
and on the other emirates of the Persian Gulf, with the first chief of which Saudi Arabia.

In 2007, the relative failure of this initiative, and the negative reaction which it caused in other countries of the Gulf, show that this policy became very delicate to implement; the United States thus risks to call it into question.

In 2003 also, the islands of Sao Tome and Principe signed an agreement authorizing the United States to establish military bases on their territory. These islands offer establishments of choice in the Golfe of Guinea, near the layers of the Nigeria and of the Angola, which would add up nearly 85 billion barrels reserves, that is to say what to satisfy 3 to 4 years of the world demand. Moreover, the gulf of Guinea is crossed by the tankers active of the Persian Gulf in the United States. The advertisement of the installation for 2008 of USAFRICOM on the military level, whose surface of responsibility is the African continent, probably meets this need on behalf of the North-American géostratèges.

Policy of presetting: China

Whereas it exported oil, it became since 1992 importing clear, and its consumption increases by 15% the year since 2001. It is the second world consumer, and thus has vital interests in the producing areas: it thus built a pipeline crossing its territory to the doors of the Central Asia, and invested large sums in the new layers of Central Asia, Iran and Africa. It also invests in Latin America and especially with the Venezuela.

The Chinese also invested various countries of Africa, which until then was in the zone of Western influence. They employ the same arguments of support to economic development in exchange of the access to the oil resources enabling them to ensure an economic growth two digits.

In Sudan, China invested much in the exploitation of the oil fields close to the Darfur. It even took part indirectly in the conflict in Darfur by providing military material to the governmental forces, in spite of an embargo of UNO, against the rebellious forces which claim a better distribution of the current oil resources and those still unexploited. It will be noted simply that one of the rebellious main leaders was received by the president américan in July 2006.

China conducts finally a campaign of intimidation with respect to its neighbors in southernmost China Sea in connection with sovereignty on the islands Spratley; this territorial conflict dissimulates oil stakes, but are also used to satisfy the national pride.

See too

Quotations

Crude oil is the main domino; if it tumbles down, all the other dominos fall|Mr. Bakhtiari, ex-tallies of the Iranian company of oils.

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