Géostratégie of Russia

This article treats contemporary géostratégie of the Russia.

Already started during the second mandate of Boris Eltsine and continued in a more significant way by its successor Vladimir Poutine, the recovery of the Russian diplomacy, after the period of confusion following the dismemberment of the the USSR, especially based itself on a political realism whose main concerns refer to the Russian national interests. The will of the Russian leaders to recover the old prestige of their country in terms of super power is one of the most outstanding points of this beginning of the century. This return of Russia on the international scene however is often perceived by many Westerners like brutal and aggressive.

Great phases

Optimism (1991-1996)

Following the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, the will to attach the Russia to the world economic system was one of the most obvious objectives of the government of Boris Eltsine. For that purpose, a strategy of kindness and bringing together with the Western Europe, and, especially, the the United States is deployed: application to join with the Funds international currency (the IMF), with the the World Bank or co-operation brought closer with the NATO, participation in FORPRONU (Force of Protection of the United Nations) in ex- Yugoslavia, signature of agreements aiming at the reduction of the armaments and the prohibition of the chemical weapons.

Certain experts combine this period of opening and optimism with the personality of the Russian Minister for the Foreign affairs of the time Andreï Kozyrev whose objectives are the development and the revitalization of an economy at the edge of the bankruptcy.

Uncertainties (1996-2001)

Started in 1996, the second mandate of Boris Eltsine is marked, on the plan geostrategic, by a reduction of Russian optimism in its relations with the Occident. Evgueni Primakov, the successor of Kozyrev, considers that the efforts of appeasing and bringing together with the old adversary did not make it possible to collect the discounted fruits. In a general way, a more distant line is established between Moscow and Washington. Within this framework, the projection of NATO in the formerly pledged space of influence in Moscow is perceived like a kind of spearhead antirusse. With the decision of NATO to intervene militarily with the Kosovo, the Russo-American relations still know a period of coldness: cancellation of a voyage of Primakov (whereas this one was already on the way), closing of the Russian military representative office at NATO with Brussels.

In a context of hasty privatizations and persistent inflation under the Eltsine era, the economic transition finally resulted in a quasi-division by two of the Gross domestic product, involving a military and political decrepitude of the old major super power, with the freezing of the great investments and the military purchases. The countryside devastator and economically exhausting First war of Chetchnia (1994-1996) precipitated the economic rout and caused critical sharp in Occident what weakened even more the geostrategic position of Russia. The economic depression which was followed from there in 1998 culminated with a major financial crisis, marked by a brutal devaluation of the Rouble and a debt record.

The arrival of Vladimir Poutine, initially as a Prime Minister, on the Russian political scene forms part of the continuity of a credible diplomacy which tries to balance a partnership reinforced with a firmness found with the Occident. The accession of Putin to the presidency in 2000, reinforced by a spectacular economic revival and success in the Second war of Chetchnia, made possible the development of new doctrines military (April 2000) in which the reinforcement of the Russian military apparatus must serve the interests geostrategic of the State without being concerned with Western considerations. This Russian hardening predicted, then, that an agreement between the the United States and the Russia would not be perfect.

Return in strength (since 2001)

The terrorist attack of the September 11th, 2001 on the United States transformed gives it geostrategic for the Russia and gave an impulse to the establishment of relations more brought closer between Russia and the the United States. The support of Russia in the fight against terrorism establishes a climate of authentic cordiality and co-operation as well as a true news alliance between the two powers. A pragmatic and realistic perception of the international stakes, as well on the Russian side as on the American side makes it possible Russia to return in force on the international scene by playing a prevalent part in the fight against the Terrorisme or in the attempts at mediation in the complex conflicts like the files Palestinian or Iran IEN.

In another order of ideas, the financial crisis of 1998 in Russia was salutary to him, in the sense that it allowed the apparatus production to become again competitive and to restart. The rise of the oil prices and the economic reforms engaged by Vladimir Poutine from 1999 also supported this rebound. Between 1999 and 2005, Russia knew an average economic growth higher than 6%. For a few years, the military complex has been rectified, thanks to the entries of the new generations of the armaments and the massive and structured purchases. The Russian public opinion is strongly favorable to the economic reforms and policies of Putin what gets a vast room for maneuver inside the country to him, including with regard to the possibility of exerting a direct interference in the operation of the Russian economic giants.

The Complexe Russian militaro-industrialist also returned, since 2002 surroundings, with the apron of the comprehensive strategy of Russia, as well in the political plan as economic. If, during the cold war the USSR delivered at cost price and even free of many materials to the “countries brothers”, Russia sells it from now on with countries able to pay like the China, the India and the Iran. Its weapons, of quality comparable and even higher than the Western productions, are much less expensive; marketed by the agency Rosoboronexport, they attract even allied countries of the United States such as the Greece, the South Korea or the United Arab Emirates.

Provided with the budget surpluses without precedent, the Russian government accelerates the renewal of the military arsenal of the country, and this in all the fields concerned, of the strategic air command (for example, by completing the setting in production of the fighter plans of 5th generation), with the new ballistic systems and of anti-missile defense (for example, the S-400 systems, Topol-M and Bulava) while passing by the placing in orbit of the constellation of the satellites of total positioning (GLONASS), programs often cold under Gorbatchev or Eltsine because of the lacks of financing. At the end of July 2007 Putin also announced the resumption of the flights of the Russian strategic bombers everywhere in the world in the zones considered to be strategic for Russia.

Today, the sectors energetics and soldier are not any more the only spearheads of the Russian strategists to regain ground in the world, other economic sectors which have wheel in motion (steel, aerospace, agro-alimentary, etc) take the changing gradually. The Russian banks show also increasingly fond of delicacies acquisitions of new assets in Occident (the acquisition of 5  % of the actions of the European aeronautical group EADS by Russian Vneshtorgbank in is an example or the interest which Aeroflot carries to the acquisition of Alitalia).

An energy super power

Today, the Russian géostratégie cannot be apprehended without conceiving the importance growing of the energetic sector (gas and Pétrole) in economic terms since 2001, period when begins the rise fulgurating from the prices of hydrocarbons in the world. Indeed, Russia is the first world producer (approximately 600 billion cubic meters) and the first world exporter (approximately 200 billion cubic meters) of gas and the 2nd world and exporting producer major of oil. Its gas reserves rise with more than 23% of world reserves. Taking into account its geographical location, Russia is the first supplier of the European Union (30% of consumed gas) whose request is in constant progression. With its control of hydrocarbons, Russia currently holds an unequalled geopolitical position by which it tries to reinforce its place of major actor in the “Big game” of the superpuissances ( Voir: Geopolitical Gazprom and of oil ).

Let us note however that in spite of false beliefs, the sector pétrogazier would account for only 18,9% of Russian GDP in 2007 and it must fall down to 14,9% in 2010, it cannot thus with him only explain the current strength of the Russian economy.

The world according to the Russian diplomatic doctrines

The military and geostrategic doctrines Russian divide the world into two distinct categories: the foreigner brought closer (former Soviet republics, except the Baltic States) and the distant foreigner (the rest of the world).

The old republics of late the the USSR, especially those members of the the Community of the Independent States, occupy a central place in the rebuilding of the Russian international policy. The paramount goal of the new Russian geostrategic doctrines concerns an attempt at reconquest of the prevalent influence in this geopolitical space, since always considered as a zone of “vital interest”, as well as a limitation of the influence of the NATO, by which other powers could create more or less strong bonds with old Russian allies: the the United States and the European Union on the one hand, competitors in a defense of their politico-economic interests, and the Islam, on the other hand, force of politico-nun influence trying to operate a return within the companies of the Central Asia and the Azerbaïdjan.

The Russian territory

The Siberia

From a point of view geostrategic, Siberia is defined as the tank gas, oil, gold bearing and diamantiferous central of the Russia. Indeed, the Russian majority of production of these raw materials is concentrated, on the geographical level, in this area. For example, approximately 90% of the production of natural gas come from the area from Tioumen and, in particular, from the autonomous district of Yamalo-Nenets, in the Far North, where are located the giant layers of Ourengoï (10.000 billion cubic meters) and of Iambourg (5,000 billion cubic meters). In this same area, the layers of the peninsula of Yamal offers gas reserves exceeding 10.000 billion cubic meters. Other more modest production zones are established in the République of Komis and in Yakoutie. The last conceals important layers of Diamant S, among most important in the world.

The the Caucasus of North

The control of the natural resources is not the single concern of Moscow. The management of the routing of the black gold since the Caspian Sea to the doors of the the Mediterranean is of an major importance for Russia. Indeed, certain pipelines pass by the Russian territory (in particular in the Caucasus) where political stability is threatened by the American interference and the irruption of terrorist bunches in the republics of Chetchnia, of Ingouchie and the Daghestan.

Russian claims in Arctic

In 2001, Russia had deposited in front of the United Nations a request for fixing of the limits external of its continental shelf in the Arctic (the dorsals Lomonossov and Mendeleïev), like in the Bering Sea and Okhotsk (of a surface of 1,2 million square kilometers on the whole). By doing this, she affirmed her claims, disputed by her neighbors, in particular by the Canada, on the wide continental shelf rich in hydrocarbons and whose reserves are estimated at 10 billion tons. U.N. commission of the limits of the continental shelf which gathers representatives of 21 States with which Russia and who are charged to define the limits of the continental shelf in accordance with the Convention of the United Nations on the right of the sea of 1982, concluded that the abundant data by Moscow were not enough to consider the zones of the Arctic Ocean indicated like belonging to the Russian continental shelf, and recommended a complementary study. In July 2007, a Russian polar forwarding carried out a new diving (to -4200 m) and spectacular in the depths of the Arctic Ocean in order to collect additional evidence making it possible to support the Russian claims. A Russian titanium flag symbolically was also planted there.

The blaze of the price of the barrel of Pétrole supported a race with the nonprofitable reserves hitherto. A recent estimate showed that the Arctique could conceal nearly the quarter of the reserves of Hydrocarbure S remaining to be discovered in the world. New technologies, the retreat of the Ice-barrier following the Climate warming and the geographical proximity return these new seams attracting for Russia. From an economic point of view, a reduction in the polar ices would open new trade route for the ships in the Arctic, while returning by this fact oil easier to extract. Separately Russia, the zone of the Arctic is also coveted by Canada, the the United States, the Denmark and the Norway. Russia affirms however that she asserts only part of the dorsal Lomonossov, her prolongation beyond the north pole probably belonging to Canada or Denmark (via the Greenland).

The “brought closer” foreigner

Within the framework of its relations with the brought closer foreigner, the Russia took part in the creation of the Communauté of the independent States (CEI) in 1991 in collaboration with the Bielorussia and the Ukraine. Nowadays, the CEI gathers twelve of the fifteen Soviet ex-republics (only the three Baltic States are not members). Initially elaborate in the objective to found an economic integration such as the European Union, the CEI became primarily an enclosure of dialog between country of the ex-USSR, having limited economic contents: many bilateral agreements of free trade however were signed between the members. Agreements concerning of the foreign policies or defense communes are also frequent within this organization.

In October 2000, a new economic formation was created bringing together certain members (Russia, Bielorussia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Ouzbékistan) of the CEI. Indeed, the Eurasian Economic community (the EEC) falls under the continuation of the initial objective of the CEI: the creation of a common economic space in which a supranational commission would legislate on the commercial relations and tariff between the Member States, thus creating a true economic block of free trade.

The Central Asia

Kazakhstan
With Kazakhstan, the Russia signed an economic union. The political relations with this country acquired these last years a new dimension. Indeed, Russia is the principal business partner of Kazakhstan. The figures of the exchanges rise with more than 10 billion dollars. The bilateral cooperation reached very an high level as regards aerospace and in the military field and technique. The development of the richnesses of the Caspian Sea is also significant. Since its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan continued a multidimensional foreign policy while seeking to balance good relationships between its two larger neighbors (Russia, China) with Western relations (European Union, the United States). The influence of Russia east thus relative but capital. The agreement of the bearing May 12th, 2007 on the restoration of the going gas pipeline of the zone Turkmène at sea Caspienne as far as Russia via Kazakhstan showed that Moscow hardened its seizure on the energy resources of the area, évinçant even the Americans who were carrying a competitor project. The agreement also in the long term envisages the construction of a second gas pipeline.

Kyrgyzstan
With the Kyrgyzstan, the Russia profited from the fast economic growth of the country thanks to the land reforms and to the exploitation of the gold mine of Kumtor under the semi-authoritative semi-democratic mode of Askar Akaiev. The Kyrgyz Republic thus became the first of the former Soviet republics to be adhered to the World Trade organization. However, in 1998, a regional financial crisis suddenly stops the economic progression of the Kyrgyzstan. This economic regression explains the diplomatic turn carried out at the time of the attacks of September 11th: the the United States obtained the installation of a permanent American military force. Single situation in its kind, Russia it also obtained an opening of a military base in this country. In spite of the " Revolution of the tulips " from 2005, which détrôné president Akaiev supported by the Russia, the relationships to the Russian power remain important, in particular within the Eurasian Economic community (the EEC).

Country more populated area, the Ouzbékistan, which aims at the regional leadership in Central Asia, initially operated a bringing together with the the United States by letting them have a military base on its ground. A popular insurrection with Andijan, repressed in blood by the mode of Karimov in May 2005, having received virulent criticisms on behalf of Washington and Brussels, precipitated the ousting of the American army of the Uzbek territory. The autocratic mode of Islam Karimov, thereafter, approached Moscow, plus laxist, by signing a bearing strategic treaty on questions military, political, economic and commercial. Giving up a foreign politics being characterized by the will from autonomy with respect to Russia, Ouzbékistan joins again a dialog with his/her former big brother. This turn makes it possible Karimov to harden its capacity inside the country and within CEI, of the Cooperation organization of Shanghai or of the the EEC to which its country recently adhered. In August 2006, Ouzbékistan also integrated the Organization of the Treaty of collective security, another organization under the aegis of Moscow.

Tadjikistan
With the Tadjikistan, a long civil war (1992 - 1997), in which several political factions, prevented economic prosperity clashed. In 1993, in order to preserve the internal stability of the country and to slow down the drug trafficking from Afghanistan towards Europe, the Russia signed a treaty with Tadjikistan by which the monitoring of the borders of this old republic is entrusted to him. After a relative period of lull begun in 1997, the decision of the president Emomali Rakhmonov in April 2004 to hasten the departure of the Russian frontier guards was perceived like a retreat of the influence of the the Kremlin to the Tadjikistan. Since, Douchanbé accepted the installation of a Russian military base as well as the hiring of the center of space observation of Nourek for one unlimited duration. The perpetuation of the Russian military presence to the Tadjikistan makes it possible Moscow to weigh a more important weight in the area by reinforcing its military and political influence.

Since its independence, the Turkménistan follows an ambitious policy, which rests mainly on its natural and agricultural energy. Indeed, this State is the second gas area of CEI after Russia. The country also has oil-bearing richnesses. Supported by Moscow, President Saparmourat Niazov dominated the country as an absolute monarch during more than 20 years. Having chosen for a policy of neutrality as well with respect to the Neighboring states as of the international main organizations, it aimed at ensuring a certain stability its country. With the death of Niazov in December 2006, the future of the supply of Turkmen gas to the reduced price remains dubious. Indeed, Moscow signed with the Turkménistan an energy agreement concerning of the gas supplies ensuring of the comfortable benefit Gazprom. Moreover, one policy of economic opening-up takes place with recent projects of pipelines with the China, the Pakistan, the Azerbaïdjan and the Turkey, independently of the Russia.

Countries of the the Caucasus

With Arménie, the Russia has a sure ally. Since the collapse of the Soviet empire, Arménie always maintained relations between bringing together strategic and Moscow, in particular with an aim of mitigating the geopolitical disadvantage of its enclavement by hostile neighbors (Turkey, Azerbaïdjan). Recently, these contacts were extended to the Iran (project of pipeline) and to the the United States (with the Armenian Diaspora). The massive participation of Russia with the Armenian economic life concerns a will to maintain a strong Russian military presence on the Armenian territory. Erevan represents a big factor of stability in Transcaucasie for Russia. Within this framework, Moscow and Erevan reaffirmed their desire to improve the co-operation within the Communauté of the independent States like implementing economic projects in the fields of energy and transport. The Russian and Armenian persons in charge also cooperate with an aim of finding a solution viable with the conflict of the Haut-Karabagh which is of an major importance for the maintenance of stability in the area.

In Azerbaïdjan, Russia is committed in a new dialog in spite of the clearly pro-American position of the Azeri republic. After the violent human drama of Haut-Karabagh (in particular with the Massacre of Khodjaly) in 1992, the foreign policy of the president Aboulfaz Eltchibeï included adhesion at the CEI, a bringing together with Turkey as well as a desire to extend the bonds with the Azeri community living in Iran. After an insurrection, which put an end to the reign of Eltchibeï, Gueïdar Aliev has makes a success of since 1994 with redévelopper an economy at the edge of the bankruptcy thanks to the oil exportation on the Western markets but corruption and the nepotism prevented any sustainable development in the other economic sectors. The discussions of the construction project of the BTC, a pipeline forwarding gas of Azerbaïdjan to the Turkey via the Georgia, have drag but an agreement was signed in 2003. The Russian influence was thus degraded in this Caucasian republic with the exclusion of Russia of the BTC. After the death of his/her father, Ilkham Aliev took again the torch with one comes up of iron.

With the Russia, Georgia holds a rather firm speech, especially since the presidency of Mikheil Saakachvili. Already under Edouard Chevardnadze, Georgia showed Moscow to support the separatist authorities of Abkhazie and Ossétie of the South. On its side, Russia a long time reproached Georgia for being laxist towards the rebels tchetchenes cut off from his territory. In 2003, the " Revolution of the pinks " president Chevardnadzé dislodged, with the profit of Saakachvili which succeeded to him in 2004. This last began in a program of reinforcement of the military apparatus géorgien like worms a very marked bringing together with the United States. Its speeches vilify Moscow often severely what ruffled the latter. The evacuation of last Russian military bases required by Tbilissi also fits in the will of independence géorgienne vis-a-vis the Russian influence. With the Ukraine, Tbilissi thinks even of the withdrawal of CEI. Moscow in April 2006 issued an embargo on the wines and mineral water géorgiens considered to be nonin conformity with the medical standards what worsened the deterioration of very tended relations between the two countries already. A low register climbing of the Russo-géorgiennes tensions was caused by the arrest in September 2006 of four Russian officers of the Forces of the maintenance of peace in Ossétie of the South, shown espionage by Georgia. In the tread, president Putin compared Mikheil Saakachvili with Joseph Stalin and showed Georgia of “terrorism of State”. October 2nd, Russia issued a blockade air, maritime, railway and postal of Georgia as reprisals. She also undertook a hardening of the control of the nationals géorgiens (with the number of a million) on her ground in order to expel illegal immigrants, a measurement considered by Georgia as discriminatory. One also expects that the Gazprom announces the passage of the tariffs of natural gas delivered to Georgia in 2007, of 110 $US current (price d'" ami") with 230 $US (price for Western Europe), another measurement considered by Tbilissi as economic pressure. Confirming its pro-American orientation, the Parliament géorgien voted unanimously the application to join with NATO on Tuesday, March 13, 2007, letting foresee the use of bases géorgiennes by the army of the United States.

Neighbors of the west

With Bielorussia, Russia engaged in a process of union of the confederal type which would exceed the objectives of a simple customs union and monetarist. The dependence of Minsk in energy and terms of outlets makes it possible Moscow to preserve its influence in this Slavic republic. At the end of 2006, Bielorussia ardently negotiated the price of its gas, which it paid until this date 47 USD for 1.000 m ³ (against more than 250 dollars then on the European market). Threatening to cut the taps unless obtaining the asking price, Russia obtained a final agreement in extremis on December 31st, 2006 at a price of 100 USD for 1.000 m ³. Moreover, it obtained a compensation in 50  % of titles in the Belorusse gas undertaking Beltransgaz (whose amount of 5 billion USD is considered overestimated by the Russian experts). Outraged by this increase, Bielorussia applied a tax on the transit of Russian oil bound for the countries more to the west (45 USD/tonne) which it has of removing a few days afterwards under the pressure of Russia. This confrontation of the two traditional allies occurs in spite of the support which Russia traditionally brings to the president Loukachenko, always with the capacity following the discussed presidential election of March 19th, 2006, which was worth criticisms of the European countries to him (the EU classified Bielorussia like dictatorship). Certain analysts estimate that Russia wants to also haggle over other substantial concessions on behalf of Bielorussia, going until the more radical solution of the annexation of Bielorussia, in a form or another, within the Federation of Russia. The Russian authorities as for with reject any political leitmotiv of the crisis, stipulating to be controls only by economic motivations. The relations with this country strongly worsened following the crisis of January 2007. Loukachenko stated to break any process of bringing together with Russia, and to turn to the Occident.

Ukraine
The Russo-Ukrainian relations were muddled following the events of the Orange revolution in 2004. At the time of the gas conflict between the Ukraine and the Russian group Gazprom at the end of the year 2005, Russia require that Kiev pay the world market price for the Natural gas. The categorical refusal of Kiev has leads to a suspension of the supplies of this strategic resource. Finally, the January 4th 2006, the Ukrainian government finds an arrangement with Russia: the invoice of gas will rise with 95 dollars for 1.000 m ³ (against 50 before). Today, Russia tries to operate a recovery with the Ukraine of the friendly agreement in terms economic, political and social, on a pragmatic basis, thus overcoming the undecided period of the beginning of the year. Considerable in Ukraine, the Russian interests determined Russia to maintain a very strong economic presence with Kiev, in particular by acquiring market shares in the energy sector and that of the media. In the political arena, Russia supported and financed many Ukrainian politicians being favorable to him with an aim of countering the diplomatic play of the the United States. Thus, with an obvious support of Moscow, the leader pro-Russian of the Party of the areas Viktor Ianoukovitch was named on August 4th, 2006 at the post of Ukrainian Prime Minister.

Moldavie
With the Moldavie, Russia continues to maintain a military quota on request the population the separatist enclave Transnistrie. This area, located at the east of the Dniestr, the most industrialized country and inhabited in great majority by Russians and Ukrainians of origin, proclaimed its independence in 1992, fearing the unification of Moldavie in Romania. Moscow, with the support of Kiev, intervened in favor of Transnistriens but the negotiations still perdurent. However, in spite of its cultural fastening in Romania, Chisinau remained independent. In economic terms, the Moldavian performance is poorest of Europe. The loss of certain traditional markets, the energy dependence with Russian gas (gas raising of prices), the important emigration of the Russian and Ukrainian executives and the secession of the principal industrial area, Transnistrie, caused the dramatic fall of the GDP, a which gallop inflation and a considerable trade deficit. On the political plan, the military presence continues of Russia in Transnistrie makes it possible Moscow to exert a tangible influence on the policy of Moldavie.

The Baltic States

The three Baltic States clearly follow a policy turned towards the west and try to be released from the Russian supervision, since their independence. However, their geopolitical situation as their energy needs confer on Russia a still palpable influence on the three States.

Estonia
With the Estonia, Russia pains to find cordial relations because of a long past of mistrust. Since the collapse of the Soviet mode, Tallinn refused adhesion at the CEI (1991) but became member of NATO (2004) then of the European Union (2004), the Russian troops having left the country in August 1994. This emancipation made it possible Tallinn to be freed from the Russian influence. However, its gas dependence and its geographical location relativize its political independence. On the diplomatic and political level, the two countries signed an in May 2005 agreement envisaging a redefinition of the borders, subject of discord since 1991. The tension between Russia and Estonia goes up of a notch when the government of this Baltic State decides in April 2007 to move the monument with the soldier of the Red Army.

Latvia
Russia recently carried out a series of efforts in order to standardize its relations with Rīga after one tended and complicated period, in particular because of the questions concerning the rights of the Russian ethnic minority in Latvian ground. Since 1991, the political will of the Latvia to turn the back on the Russian sphere of influence to anchor itself definitively within the western world did not attenuate the many different ones between the two countries. Following the Russian economic crisis of the end of the year 1990, Rīga orchestrated a radical reorganization of its foreign trade (excluding Russia). This one from now on is directed towards the EU who represents approximately two thirds of exports and imports Latvian. However, the country attaches a more palpable importance of the Russian economic interests.

Lithuania
With the Lithuania, Russia maintains the relations which oscillate between good neighborhood and disagreement in spite of the withdrawal of the Russian troops of the Lithuanian territory completed in 1993. On the political plan, Vilnius attaches more the high importance to its integration in the EU and NATO. Fears persist in considering the eagerness of Moscow using the enclavement of Kaliningrad to obtain a transit duty civil and military unlimited through the Lithuanian territory. Consequently, of many Russian diplomats were expelled of the countries, shown espionage. According to Vilnius, the shade of the Russian secret services unquestionably planed on the presidential campaign of Rolandas Paksas. On the economic plan, Lithuania is strongly dependant on energy matter Russia even if it tries to diversify its partners thanks to agreements of free trade signed with the two other States Baltes, the European Union, the Turkey and the Poland.

The “distant” foreigner

With the European Union, the Russia has a frontier space since 1995 (accession of Finland). The European energy dependence was the spearhead of the establishment of cordial relations with the Russia. Indeed, Russia, via the group Gazprom, has provides to the Western Europe 25% of its needs in Natural gas in 2005. Moreover, according to recent statistics, the Baltic States are dependant at 100%, Austria with 55%, Germany with 37%, France with 21%. Moscow can thus use this energy dependence to make pressure on the countries concerned. However, after the gas conflict with the Ukraine, Europeans try to diversify their gas and oil-bearing importation. Russia as for it, refuses to sign the European energy Charte which it considers discriminatory in its connection. The project discussed of gas pipeline via the Baltic with the support of the Germany, was launched last year, it will circumvent the transit by third countries (Poland, Ukraine). The start-up of the pipelines which emerged in the Adriatic Sea via Croatia and the Montenegro or those which led in White Mer and on the gulf of Finland are also added to the growing list of the pipelines bound for Europe. At the political level, the EU is committed today in the integration of the Central European country and Eastern. This policy of consolidation can sometimes enter in conflict with certain Russian interests (in particular in Ukraine or Bielorussia). The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania, becomes within this framework the object of concern for the EU. The Russian superiority is not due however only to the gas dependence of the EU. The latter also suffers from the inexistence of a common foreign policy which would govern overall and with one voice its relations with Russia, the Member States getting along still on a case-by-case basis with the the Kremlin. The political negotiations between Moscow and Brussels, inter alia, within the framework of the UE-Russia Summit, are often long and difficult on practically all the questions since the day when the European Union admitted in its rows its old satellites which do not hide their animosity with regard to Russia. The Russian embargo on the meat of source of Poland (explained by a lack of traceability and sanitary control) in 2006-2007 was at the origin of the Polish veto to the signature of the UE-Russia Agreement, putting the negotiations between the two partners in a dead end.

The United States

With the the United States, the diplomatic relations cooled after the period known as of the " great alliance " following the attacks of the September 11th, 2001. At the time, Russia had supported the “Guerre against terrorism” launched by Washington, which enabled him to register the resistance tchetchene in the category of the terrorist movements. The co-operation between the two States not only was at the level of the intelligence services and information but also at the military level. A Russian tacit agreement for the use of military bases in Central Asia (Ouzbékistan and Kyrgyzstan) by the Americans showed a certain solidarity vis-a-vis the terrorist movement between Washington and Moscow. The new strategic Cooperation Council NATO - Russia is created at once in the tread of this antiterrorist co-operation. However, since the Russian refusal on the Iraqi question, the Russo-American relations evolved/moved, making re-appear a feeling of uncertainties and mutual mistrust. The subtle fight of influence in Central Asia, Transcaucasia and Eastern Europe, between Americans and Russians, ruffled one or the other part. In the same vein, concerns were expressed by Washington about the Russian relations with enemy countries (“Axis of the evil”) like Iran or the North Korea. In this direction, the file of the Iranian nuclear power on which Russia maintains a firm position is likely to worsen a situation already tended between the two powers. At the beginning of year 2006, the increasing cooling of the two nations was concretized with the reprobatory speech pronounced in Vilnius by the American vice-president Dick Cheney causing sour counterparts and caustic behaviors by Vladimir Poutine. Fearing the return in strength of Russia on the international scene, the United States supports financially certain countries of the Soviet ex-block having made the choice of the democracy by the means of the velvet revolutions within organizations such as GUAM or the any news Alliance for the Democratic Choice, the organizations having like drank to counter the Russian influence on space post-Soviet. Certain Russian experts show the American administration to proceed to " a sabotage carefully of the policy of the Kremlin via the médias" , to encourage the widening of NATO in the Ukraine and Georgia, and to even support " processes of disintegration in the russe" Federation;.

At the beginning of 2007, vis-a-vis the projects of anti-missile installation of the American defense systems in Eastern Europe, Putin raises the tone in its relationships to the United States and NATO. Its marked speech on February 10th, 2007 in front of the Conference of Munich on safety fustigates the bringing together of the troops of NATO of the borders of Russia, as well as a unipolar world with " Washington for center of direction" , which would impose its interior laws and its own vision of the world on the whole of the international community.

June 4th, Putin mentions the possibility of directing Russian missiles towards Western Europe if the project of installation of the anti-missile defense system had suddenly been creates. June 8th, 2007, at the time of the 33e top of G8 to Heiligendamm, Vladimir Poutine creates a surprise while proposing in the United States to use the radar of Gabala rented by Russia with the Azerbaïdjan. According to Putin, with this radar, the United States will not need more to place missiles anti-ballistics to Poland and in space, nor “to build a new radar as a Czech Republic.” Condoleezza Rice insisted on the fact that the negotiations with Poland and Tchéquie continued. The proposal was considered to be “interesting” by Stephen Hadley, the to advise with the national security of George Bush.

China and India

With China and India, Russia enters a phase of relations without precedent. A joint statement signed by Beijing, New Delhi and Moscow formulated the need for establishing a comprehensive strategy of development in Eurasia resting at the same time on mutual confidence and the profit, the equality and coordination. The Cooperation organization of Shanghai, whose India became observant member, falls under this new eurasiatic alliance. This Russia-China-India triangle is transformed into an increasingly solid structure. Indeed, of the military exercises united with China (Mission of Peace 2005) gained a sharp success and New Delhi already stated that it would be interested to take part in similar exercises. The maintenance of stability in Central Asia and safety of the sea routes of transport of hydrocarbons seem to be the most paramount objectives of this bringing together eurasiatic. Another convergence point of the interests of the three countries is the fight against international terrorism. The the Caucasus for Russia, the Cashmere for India and the Xinjiang for the China are areas sheltering an Islamic extremist and fundamentalist mobility. Overall, these interetatic triangular relations, while making it possible to establish a military partnership, link these three states in their will to put a term at the American strategy of the unipolar world by creating a true regional force. The fast economic development of India and consequently its increasing requirements in energy made it possible Moscow to conclude from the agreements weighing several billion dollars, which did of Russia one of the most important partners of India not only in the energetic sector but also defense space research. It is increasingly obvious that Russia tries to attract this giant country in the sphere of its geopolitical and economic interests, bringing the moment closer to Indian adhesion to the Cooperation organization of Shanghai.

Near and the Middle East

In this area, Russia is divided between the internal forces preaching a bringing together with the countries of the the Middle East and its external engagement into Occident. Following the collapse of the Soviet empire, Russia eclipsed of this area for internal reasons of national rebuilding, leaving the free ground to the American ambitions. However, these last years, the role more serious than gives itself Russia on the international scene enabled him to go parking as a mediator of choice in the area. With the the Middle East, Russia always sought to balance its Arab relations with those Israeli. Reception of a delegation of the Hamas marking down avid Russia to find its international respectability after humiliation of the collapse of the Soviet mode and the democratic revolutions which have occurred in its old sphere of influence. Even if they can froisser its partner Israeli, the possible supplies of Russian systems of anti-aircraft defense in Syria fall under the realistic geopolitical vision of Moscow. However, the promising bilateral projects with in energy, data processing and telecommunications run up against the competition of the United States. With the the Middle East, the role of mediation of Russia on the question of the Iranian nuclear power is undeniable. The bilateral relations between the two states are vital for Russia in economic and military term. Dividing the international community, this file is presented however in the form of a true potential source of conflict: the Russian geopolitical position can make it possible to resolve the situation between Teheran and Tel-Aviv, by preventing a confrontation, but this prospect will depend on the position for the Israeli leaders.

See too

Related articles

External bonds

  • Site of the Russian Ministry of the Foreign affairs
  • Presentation of Russia on the site of the French Ministry of the Foreign affairs
  • '' “Business and terrorism in Moscow”. '' Article by Paul Labarique, Voltaire Network.

Reference

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