The prospective is the study of the possible futures (concept created by Gaston Berger).
The term generally gets busy when it is based on varied scientific research, and that it is used as a basis for the reflection Politique (with the direction first).
One can analyze the word in the form of Mot-valise to express his etymology. It joins together the Prospection which are the exploration of new fields, and the Perspective which induces the concepts from point of view and future.
Objectives
Interior, the futurology is described like:" a step independent, Dialectical and rigorous, carried out in a way transdisciplinaire and collective. It is intended to clarify the questions of the present and the future, on the one hand by considering them within their framework Systémique and complex and, on the other hand, by registering them, in temporality. Exploratory, the futurology makes it possible to detect the tendencies and against-tendencies of evolution, to identify continuities, the ruptures and the Bifurcation S of the variables (actors and factors) of the environment, like determining the range of the possible futures. Normative, the futurology makes it possible to build desirable visions of futures, to work out collective Stratégie S and possible logics of intervention and, consequently, to improve quality of the decisions with prendre."
Horizons of time
The concept of Tendance is however diverted by the cabinets of style. One speaks then about " tendency of mode" … for the next season. One is then far from the futurology generally,- prospective of the present on 2 to 5 years,
- prospective of becoming on 5 to 10 years,
- prospective near to the Futurologie on more than 25 years.
Methods
The futurology is in France does it of two schools. One is directed towards the Scénario S. By caricaturing assumptions, it makes it possible to lead to scenarios or conceivable prospective diagrams built on units. The other is directed towards the Intuition. She seeks what is not field of logic and takes risks, is expressed by book of futurology.None is better than the other, but the history seems to show that in the case of the futurology at 10 years, the second was more effective according to the insufflated intuitive richness. Thus, the fax, Dell, the SMS, Actimel,… were born from intuitions. It is true that in France, the method of the scenarios reassures the Cartesian spirits. In Canada, there would be the preference for the intuitive method.
Attempts are done day to test probabiliser the possibility of supervening of scénarii but the methods call upon the d'" impressions; experts" it is always difficult to qualify reliability. The functionality of the futurology is to facilitate decision making on the basis of scénarii possible and to develop favorable strategies in order not to undergo the events which can be regarded as probable. It is necessary to speak about a prospective step because, an effective futurology is based on adjustments and corrections in retroactive loops in time.
See too
Internal bonds
- Futurology
- economic Futuribles
- Forecast
- Governorship