French presidential election of 2007

The French presidential election of 2007 provides for the replacement with Jacques Chirac to the function with President with the French Republic. The president is invested by the French for a mandate five years.

An exceptionally high number of French were registered on the electoral rolls, to reach a total of: 43973024 registered voters on the French territory, and: 535000 French from abroad, registered on the consular lists. That accounts for 1,8 million additional registered voters over one year, and 3,3 million additional voters compared to 2002. The source of this new participation in the political life is in the population growth, but also in an renewed interest of the French political life.

The first ballot took place on Sunday, April 22, 2007 of 8:00 to 18:00 Because of the jet lag, the election also took place on Saturday, April 21, 2007 apart from the Metropolitan France: Guadeloupe, Guyana, Martinique, French Polynesia, Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon and in the polling stations opened by the embassies and consular stations located on the American continent.

The first turn made it possible to select Ségolène Royal and Nicolas Sarkozy. No candidate not having collected the absolute majority of the votes cast, the second ballot took place the Sunday May 6th, 2007.

The mandate of Jacques Chirac ended the May 16th 2007 with Minuit.

The May 10th, the Constitutional council proclaims the election of the candidate of UMP Nicolas Sarkozy winner with 53,06% of the voices, that is to say a total of 18.983.138 bulletins of Vote in its favor.

Unfolding

Dates of the poll

The dates of the poll, confirmed by decree, were made public by a communication of the Minister of Interior Department at the Council of Ministers of the October 24th 2006.

Sunday April 22nd: first turn .
Sunday May 6th: second turn .

For the first time at the time of a presidential election (that had already been the case for the referendum on the constitutional treaty in 2005), the French of the departments, communities or overseas territories like some of the 821.600 French registered abroad being located at the west of the metropolis and beyond the Atlantic voted before the official date. Thus in Guadeloupe, Guyana, Martinique, with Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon, in French Polynesia, and in the Embassy S and the stations consular S located on the American continent, the poll was advanced one day. This in order to allow to the voters these areas to vote without knowing the estimates of the national results. Indeed, with the jet lag, of the estimates being worth almost results are diffused with 20:00, Paris time, with the closing of the last metropolitan polling stations whereas these polling stations of overseas were still even open had just opened for those of Polynesia, which supported the abstention. In these areas, the first turn thus took place there saturdays April 21st 2007, and the second turn will take place there saturdays May 5th. The first French polling stations to open for the presidential election are thus those of Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon. The last to be voted will be the French registered in the archipelago of the Cape Verde.

First turn

The first turn of the presidential election 2007 was marked by an exceptional participation with a score of 83,77% of the registered voters. This figure is comparable with the first turn of the presidential election of 1965 which was of 84,8%.

Parties

The history of the parties and their support is complicated by alliances, associations (because a party can be made up of several other parties, which according to the circumstances will take again or give up their autonomy), scission and fusions, like by the personal movements influential politicians.

the two tables which follow, presents this evolution in form simplified and thus incomplete, then in more detailed, but more precise form.

Bonds: 1965 to 1995 2002 2007

Adventures

The left antilibérale in the storm

A call in this direction was launched in May 2006 by personalities, members or not of political parties and often close to the Collectifs of May 29th (old Committees for not of left to the referendum) for the designation of a unit of left antilibérale and alternate candidate to the presidential election.

Following this call, many collectives are created, for a part resulting from the collectives of May 29th, at the local level, as well as a National collective of initiative for a gathering anti-liberal of left and common candidatures.

Last nine candidates proposed for the nomination by the collectives:

Clémentine Autain (related mayor-assistant PCF of Paris)
Jose Bove (former spokesperson of the Peasant confederation)
Marie-George Buffet (national secretary of PCF)
Patrick Braouezec (appointed PCF of the Seine-Saint-Denis)
Julien Faessel
Michel Feuillebois
Patrick Guillot
Jack Harmand
Yves Salesse (president of the Foundation Copernic, adviser of State).

The November 24th, Jose Bove announces the “provisional” withdrawal of its candidature.

The meeting of the 9 and December 10th with the island-Saint-Denis was surging and did not succeed in establishing a consensus. The direction of PCF estimated that the candidature of Marie-George Buffet (majority in the preliminary votes of the collectives) was the best and invited to respect the choice of these collectives. The main part of the other organizations wanted a candidature which can more largely gather, without however having agreement on a name.

The Communist militants chose to 81,05% (41 533 votes) to confirm this candidature. The choice of the withdrawal obtained only 18,90% (9 683 votes), with 2,02% of blank votes (1058 votes).

The meeting envisaged on December 21st between the various organizations of the gathering concluded that there will be no candidature of the gathering antilibéral for presidential of 2007.

In reaction to this meeting, Olivier Besancenot, candidate of the LCR, invited the left antilibérale to gather around his candidature following the candidature of Marie-George Buffet.

The 2007, at the time of a press conference with Saint-Denis (Seine-Saint-Denis), Jose Bove confirmed her candidature officially. He thus seeks to position above the other antilibéraux candidates, since he belongs to the many personalities without political party but seeking to weigh on the poll. The national united collective however recalled that Jose Bove was not the candidate of the collectives and the gathering antilibéral, not more than Marie-George Buffet.

Two candidates resulting from the antilibéraux collectives (and signatories of the call of the May 10th) are thus represented: Jose Bove and Marie-George Buffet. However, none of both was invested by the collectives.

The end result with the first turn was very weak with a total score of the two candidates lower than that of 2002 of only the PCF.

DEBATEs of the interval turns

Characteristic of this election, a debate was held on Saturday, April 28 in the morning between Ségolène Royal and Francois Bayrou, retransmis by BFMTV; the SCUMS had not envisaged such a situation.

Traditional the debate televised of between two turns (which had not taken place in 2002) was held Wednesday May 2nd 2007 with 21:00 It was animated by Patrick Poivre d' Arvor (TF1) and Arlette Chabot (France 2) and carried out by Jerome Revon. It was relayed on other television channels and radio like on Internet. Envisaged to last 2 hours, it lasted 2 hours 39.

The subjects tackled at the time of the debate related to work, public finances where Nicolas Sarkozy defended the idea to amalgamate the minsitères charged to fix the tax and charged to perceive it, the safety whose discussion related to the rape of a woman police officer, quickly evoked housing, the immigration where Nicolas Sarkozy defended the idea of an selected immigration whereas Ségolène Royal was favorable to the massive regularizations, the quickly evoked retirement, the nuclear energy which caused a polemic on the generation to which belongs the European pressurized Réacteur and where Nicolas Sarkozy was favorable to this project while Ségolène Royal defended the idea to be focused on the generation which will succeed the EPR, education where each candidate brought ambitious proposals and Europe where Nicolas Sarkozy expressed his refusal Net of the Entry of Turkey in the European Union because that would prevent the construction of political Europe according to him.

After this debate, the political commentators were in disagreement on the question of knowing if there were one “gaining”. They underlined all the clear difference in style between a Ségolène Royal accrocheuse, combative according to its partisans and aggressive according to its adversaries, and Nicolas Sarkozy more posed, controlling her files according to its partisans and erased according to its adversaries. Ségolène Royal, stopping her adversary regularly, expressed himself approximately 3 minutes more than Nicolas Sarkozy.

As after the other debates of this kind, the positions of the electorate moved only in small proportions, according to the survey institutes. The commentators fell from agreement to say that at this stage of an electoral campaign, much of voters had already made their choice, and that it was difficult to imagine that the undecided ones would lean all on the same side.

Internet

Internet plays from now on a leading role within the framework of the presidential election: relay of the information published by the traditional mediums (television, radio, written press) and receptacle of the reactions and the intentions of the voters. Those thus are now equipped with a media platform to the astonishing capacities of attraction as the multiplication of the blogs of countryside shows it. A survey carried out for RTL by Novatris /Harris mentions that nearly the quarter of French believes that the Internet will have an influence on the result of the poll of April.

New forms of expression appear. Following the example American politicians, the candidates have the possibility of having a chain on YouTube, a page on Skyblog, MySpace and of the groups of support inside the sites of social networking . The Web sites make it possible to individualize the message with the user by providing vidéos which make it possible to penetrate the intimacy of a campaign and life of the candidates.

However the role of the Internet cannot be measured. In the United States, the Internet played a big role for the campaigns of 2004 and 2006 while making it possible vidéos amateurs to quickly circulate on the Web by discrediting a candidate (see the Macaca business, where a candidate uttering a racial insult was taken in offense by a video amateur: it lost its seat).

Three vidéos marked the French election by the importance of their diffusion on Youtube or Dailymotion: the video the Truth Sarkozy , it video of Ségolène Royal apostrophizing the professors over the 35 hours and, at the end of campaign, it video Sarkozy Human Bomb put on line by the partisans of Nicolas Sarkozy to be opposed to the attempts at diabolisation of its opponents. Rachida Dati was also filmed informant, in joke, which it would be “Minister for the urban renovation with blow of Kärcher” thus referring to a former declaration of Nicolas Sarkozy.

The Internet is also the center of another debate, which is the hour of publication of the estimates. It is the journalist Jean-Marc Morandini who it first, raises this question. He publicly threatened to diffuse “rumors checked” of the first turn as of eighteen hours, before retracting on April 21st, 2007 in the evening. Although a publication of estimates is prohibited in France, several foreign sites declared that they would publish these estimates as of 18:00. Morandini thus wanted to show that it was absurd that the localization of the waiter influences the legality of the action undertaken. A French site should have priority in the disclosure of the first estimates of the results of a French election. Although this action could not go until the end, it made it possible to show the importance which Internet in the political life could take. Certain Internet sites of information French-speaking foreigners just like some blogs were out-line the day of the first turn (cuts or saturated). On the other hand, foreign televisions of information were always available in France and much of enters they announced the first estimates towards 18:30.

E-voting

At the time of this election, the media attached a great importance to the progression of the E-voting. The e-voting largely had already been used at the time of the referendum of 2005 - but it was its first use with also large scales for this type of poll. Criticisms appeared in the media a few months before the poll; these criticisms fall under a wide-ranging debate on the e-voting in France (see E-voting).

Criticisms following the poll quickly found a broad echo in the press. Thus in the afternoon of the poll, the newspaper 20 minutes brought back incidents, a few hours later the site of the Barber brought back the sasine of the Constitutional council by an regional adviser francilien, the evening of the poll the site of the chain of information LCI brought back the technical concern about which certain voters complained and the agitation and the doubts caused in certain elected officials; the following day, the Parisien titrated the April 23rd 2007 on page 9 “the electronic ballot box passes badly near the voters”.

Various citizens deposited in front of the administrative courts of the summary procedure-freedoms tending to require the re-establishment of your traditional one in their commune, which all were rejected. In addition, of the dysfunctions were noted (breakdowns, queues) and of the problems inherent in the use of the machines were brought back by various newspapers

Certaines machines did not satisfy the technical payment which is worth to them their approval according to the newspaper Le Monde .
Of the modifications carried out on machines to vote involved their replacement at the last minute - the modified machines not having been able to receive approval.

However, the constitutional council made a point of underlining by commenting on with the Cahiers its decision of declaration of the results of the first turn which “It is interesting to raise that the use of machines to be voted does not have, from this point of view, have any incidence: no cancellation of results relates to polling stations in which such machines were used.”

International

Before the elections, two French hostages were captured by the Taliban S on April 3rd, 2007. The expiry of the ultimatum initially planned for Friday, April 27 was deferred to the Sunday, May 6 to take account of the expiry of the French election time.

The presidential election of 2007 was the subject of a considerable press coverage in the international press, because of the weight of the country as a member of the European Union like nations of the G8. As example, on April 22nd, 2007, CNN International retransmis on line the speech of Ségolène Royal given at the conclusion of the first turn has. The journalist of CNN Hala Gorani thereafter carried out an emission of analyzes with French bloggers and politicians at the conclusion of this speech.

Various incidents

At the evening of the first turn, on April 22nd at the evening, individuals had put fire at an about sixty vehicles in the North-East of Paris.

At the time of the second turn, before the results about thirty cars were burned in Paris the day before at the evening Sunday the second turn the elections in 3rd, 9th, 10th, 13th and 18th districts. The French capital is generally saved by these exactions, as during the riots of autumn 2005.

After the results of the incidents were raised with the Bastille in Paris, with Bordeaux, Lille on the central place, with Clermont-Ferrand, Toulouse, Nantes, Lyon, Courneuve, Dugny, Rennes, Strasbourg and Brest (nonexhaustive list). They are for the majority disputes between demonstrators violent one and CRS or member of the anti-riot polices. Many cars (367 according to the official figures of the Ministry for the Interior) were also burned just as of the buildings, in particular a permanence of UMP.

Countryside

The Sunday 11 March 2007, Jacques Chirac announces that he “will not request the votes for a new mandate”.

In will a discussion with Michel Drucker diffused on February 11th, 2007 in an emission on his wife, Jacques Chirac, to the question “What you make the day when you will leave the Elysium, which it is in a few months or five years? ”, had answered that “there is a life after the policy, there is a life until death”. Certain observers had already seen an index there owing to the fact that Jacques Chirac would not represent himself.

Other considerations on the election

Equality

In addition to the other legal considerations, certain considerations aim to the equality between the candidates. For example, the company Clear Chanel was in charge of the electoral billposting for the French presidential election of 2007. However, this work of posting was not made in certain communes, in particular in Guadeloupe.

Legal and constitutional considerations

Beyond the problems of the time speaking treated by SCUMS, other legal problems involved in the freedom of expression of the candidates were raised, in the month preceding the first turn.

the candidate Gerard Schivardi denounced the decisions, made under the pressure of the Socialist party via the Association of the mayors of France (MFA), by the National Commission of control of the countryside for the presidential election on March 29th, and by the Court of Bankruptcy of Paris on April 2nd, prohibiting to him to the use of the slogan “candidate of the mayors” in any declaration and any electoral document; these decisions would oblige it to remake its 25 million professions of faith and all the posters. According to Gerard Schivardi this sanction would cost him: approximately 320000 euros.
For Ségolène Royal, the use of the colors blue-white-red is considered to be incompatible with a “tool of propaganda”. “The electoral code, to guarantee the safety of the poll and the equality between the candidates, instituted a major interdict on the use of the three colors”, affirms a note of the PS which quotes article R. 27 of the known as code. The code indicates in particular: “Posters and circulars being a goal or electoral which include/understand the combination of the three colors, blue, white, red except for the reproduction of the emblem of a party or political grouping, are prohibited”. This article was modified by decree on October 11th, 2006, to widen the sphere of the interdicts, only the posters being up to that point concerned. The note continues: “Certainly, the book of Nicolas Sarkozy is neither a poster, nor a leaflet but the use which is done by it places it clearly in the category of the electoral document. ” However, the Minister of Interior Department was not sanctioned. On another side, some posters of countryside of Ségolène Royal exist in two versions, one blue and white and the other red and white, and one could see these posters posed side by side to evoke without ambiguity the Tricolor.
Francois Bayrou proposed the organization of a debate on Internet. However, Nicolas Sarkozy indicated his opposition to the organization of such a debate on Internet, media “out the law” according to him. It is true that the Constitutional council does not have for the moment any jurisprudence concerning possible debates of the candidate via Internet.
Of the polemics as for the reliability of the machines to be voted having been the subject of the attention of the media, the Constitutional council published the March 29th an official statement recalling “that the use of the machines to be voted for the elections, in particular presidential, is authorized by the legislator since 1969” and that “this recourse to the machines to be voted under the conditions fixed by the article L. 57-1 of the electoral code was declared in conformity with the Constitution”. Various citizens deposited in front of the administrative courts of the summary procedure-freedoms tending to require the re-establishment of your traditional one in their commune, which all were rejected. Although dysfunctions (breakdowns, queues unusual length) could be noted that and there, the constitutional council made a point of underlining by commenting on with the Cahiers his decision of declaration of the results of the first turn which “It is interesting to raise that the use of machines to be voted does not have, from this point of view, have any incidence: no cancellation of results relates to polling stations in which such machines were used.”

Discusses around the 500 signatures

To be officially indicated like candidate, it is necessary to obtain 500 signatures of elected officials: deputies, senators, mayors, deputy mayors of the common partners, mayors of the districts of Lyon and Marseilles or elected members of the Parliament of the French from abroad, general advisers of the departments, Mayotte, Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon or the council of Paris, regional advisers, elected officials of the Assembly of Corsica, the Parliament of French Polynesia, the Congress and the assemblies of province of New Caledonia, the territorial Parliament of the islands Wallis-and-Futuna, French representatives with the European Parliament.

These sponsorships, in a tank of approximately: 45000 of which: 36000 mayors, must come from at least thirty departments or communities of overseas different without more than one tenth of them being resulting from the same department or the same community from overseas.

Obtaining the 500 signatures necessary to be able to arise to the presidential election is always prone to controversy, in particular around Jean-Marie Le Pen. For 2007, the controversy touches all the small parts. The call of François Holland with the elected officials of the Socialist party to hold their signatures with the socialist candidate led to a rumor within the small parts which says that the PS, the UMP and sometimes the UDF would make stopping vis-a-vis their candidates and would exert pressures on the mayors small communes so that they do not give their signature. Future candidates as opposite as Olivier Besancenot, Jose Bove and Corinne Lepage make state publicly of it.

An amendment deposited in the name of the socialist group in order to extend the publication to the Official journal with all the received presentations having been pushed back, the Constitutional council stated that it renonçait with the practice initiated in 1988 consisting in publishing in his buildings the whole of valid sponsorships. Only 500 names of presenters per candidate admitted to contribute, determined by drawing lot, will thus be published this time.

The forms of sponsorship signed by the elected officials are to be turned over to the Constitutional council for on March 16th, 2007 to 6 p.m. at the latest (local time of the territory from which the signature comes from the form of sponsorship).

Gerard Schivardi denounced the blackmail with the subsidies, on the mayors who wish to sponsor it, by political directors of areas or departments.

To help finances of his commune of Noron-the-Pottery (Apple-brandy), Andre Garrec, mayor, placed his signature on a site of auction. The bidding was gained with 1550 € by Rachid Nekkaz. The exchange took place on March 12th, 2007 on the chain LCI, the candidate immediately tore the document.

The March 9th, the former minister for the culture Jean-Jacques Aillagon (UMP) gives its signature by drawing lot to Olivier Besancenot. A mayor of a commune of Ille-et-Vilaine made in the same way and the fate indicated Arlette Laguiller. Considering this process “incompatible with the dignity which sied with the operations contributing to any election and that the presentation must result from a voluntary act of the presenter”, the Constitutional council indicated that sponsorships thus allotted will not be taken into account just like sponsorships having given place to financial counterpart about the Constitutional council.

Surveys

Surveys preliminary to the first turn

Not-exhaustive table aiming at observing the evolutions of the first 4 candidates.

Surveys between the two turns

See also: Surveys on the French presidential election of 2007#2nd turn

Study of the carryforward of the voices enters the two turns

Source: study undertaken by Sofres

Results

Geographical analysis

Nicolas Sarkozy arrives at the head in 73 metropolitan departments out of 96 at the first turn. It obtains more than 30% of the votes cast in 41 of them, carrying out its best scores in the Alpes-Maritimes (43,6%), the VAr (39,7%) and, to a lesser extent, in Haute-Savoie and Corse-du-sud (37,5% each one). It arrives at the head in 7 of the 8 departments of Ile-de-France, and also arrives first in all the departments of north, which were until there one of the most faithful electoral stronghold of the left and in the Territory of Belfort, stronghold of Jean-Pierre Chevènement. The overseas territories are not in remainder: the Guadeloupe, Guyana, Wallis and Futuna, New Caledonia and French Polynesia crediting it with scores going well beyond the 40%. Its success is less in the departments of south-west of France and in Brittany, but it never passes in lower part of the bar of the 25%.

To the second turn, the candidate of UMP is majority in almost all the departments of the north of France, the Pas-de-Calais remaining the only one to prefer Ségolène Royal to him. He reaches until more than 68% of the voices in the Alpes-Maritimes and exceeds the 60% in the Paddle, in Alsace, in Haute-Savoie, in Ain, the VAr, Vaucluse, in Corse-du-sud and New Caledonia. There obtains its weaker score in Ariège (40,44%) and remains been sulky by a vast majority of departments of south-west and center, while Brittany continues to marginalize it.

At the first turn, Ségolène Royal arrives at the head in 23 metropolitan departments and 3 overseas territories. It obtains its best score in Ariège with 35% of the votes cast, and is credited with similar scores in Seine-Saint-Denis and in its stronghold of Two-Sevres (more than 33%). It exceeds the bar of the 25% in a majority of departments of south-west and Brittany, in some departments of north, Nievre, the Saône-et-Loire, the Territory of Belfort, in Meurthe-et-Moselle, in Alp-of-High-Provence and all the departments of Ile-de-France except for Yvelines. For the first time since 1974, the Nord-Pas-de-Calais Rocks on the right as of the first turn, Nicolas Sarkozy arriving at the head in the whole of the departments of the north of France.

To the second turn, the socialist candidate is majority in 28 metropolitan departments and 6 overseas territories. It is besides in overseas that it obtains its best results, since it exceeds the bar of the 60% in Martinique, with the Meeting and with Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon (it obtains 59% with Mayotte). If Yrénées-Atlantiques rock on the left for first time since 1988 (and even since 1965 if one disregards this election marked by a broad victory of François Mitterrand), the departments of north, except for the Pas-de-Calais (where it must be however satisfied with small a 52%), pass all on the right as a voter mainly for Sarkozy. Ségolène Royal is credited with scores going from 55,53% to 59,56% (in the order ascending) in the Coasts of Armor, High-Vienna, in the Batch, in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the Hautes-Pyrénées and in Ariège. It obtains less in 40% in 9 departments, obtaining its weaker score in the Alpes-Maritimes (31,92%).

Francois Bayrou obtains as for him a score with two digits in all the departments, and this one very often exceeds the 15%. It realizes are better score in its stronghold of the Yrénées-Atlantiques: with 29,6% of the votes cast, it precedes all the other candidates. The departments close to the Moors and the Hautes-Pyrénées give him scores exceeding the 20%, just like Aveyron, Lozere, the Cantal, Puy de Dôme and the High Loire in Auvergne and in its surroundings. It also crosses the threshold of the 20% in the Rhone, in Savoy and Haute-Savoie, like in the two departments of Alsace and half of the departments of Ile-de-France (Yvelines, the Essonne, Hauts-de-Seine and Paris).

But it is in the North-West that the candidate of UDF had the most success: the whole of the departments of Brittany, the Apple-brandy and the English Channel in Basse-Normandie, Mayenne, the Loire-Atlantique, the Maine-et-Loire and even the very preserving Vendée in the Countries of the Loire and the Indre-et-Loire credit it with scores going of 20,2 to 23,8% of the votes cast. Overseas is not in remainder: the voters of Mayotte decided with 25,7% and those from Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelon to 23% for Mr. Bayrou.

In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen had arrived at the head in 35 departments. In 2007, not only it does not renew this exploit, not arriving at the head nowhere, but crumbles significantly there it where had made a success of 5 years so well earlier. Its best score is only of 17,3% of the votes cast in Aisne, and if it passes the bar of the 13% in the very great majority of the departments of the North-East and in all the departments to the edge of the Italian border, elsewhere, the scores are only seldom with two digits, and Le Pen moves back in all the departments without exception.

By way of examples, it crumbles in the Rhone, passing from 19,35 to 9,09%, or in the Lot-et-Garonne, spending 18,9 to 12,5%. It falls of more than 10 points in the Rhone delta, and undergoes an important reverse in Seine-Saint-Denis, spending 17,7 to 9% votes cast. If Corsica remains faithful to the leader of the FN, it goes from there differently from the Nord-Pas-de-Calais: with 14,8% in this working area which generally offers good scores to the extreme right-hand side, Le Pen loses more than 4 points and passes from the first in the fourth place. Alsace, which had however allotted to the FN its best score at the time of the second turn of the regional elections of 2004 (22%), decides only to 13,6% for its president (- 9,9 points compared to 2002).

(to be supplemented)

Socio-professional analysis

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Source: Yahoo article on the institute Ipsos

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