Factor 4
The concept of Facteur 4 indicates a Objectif or ecological engagement which consists in multiplying by 4 the Efficience modes of production, i.e. to produce as many wealth of using four times less Raw materials and energy. Its interpretation can vary; sometimes it is a question of dividing by 4 consumption of energy, sometimes it more precisely acts in a total assessment to divide by 4 the gas emissions with greenhouse effect of a production process, a service, a building, etc
In Europe; the objective, corresponds to the equitable share of this community in factor 2 on the level of the planet (level stopped by G8)
En France, Facteur 4 generally indicates the Engagement taken in 2003 before the international community by the Head of the State and the Prime Minister “to divide by a factor the 4 national emissions of Gaz to greenhouse effect of the level of 1990 from here 2050”. This objective was validated by the French Grenelle of the environment in 2007.
Why the “factor 4” ?
The data accumulated by GIEC, the Intergovernmental Group of the experts studying the evolution of the climate are allowed by the states;- the rise of the average temperature of the sphere was of 0,6°C during the 20th century (1°C in France),
- GIEC announced in 2000 a rise in 1,5 with 2,5°C for the end of the 21e century. New simulations give values to the rise; the GIEC announced a at the beginning of 2007 total warming of 1,1 with 6,4°C, with a strong probability for 3°C reaches even exceeded, involving serious ecological, social and economic impacts.
L' greenhouse effect is necessary to life on ground because it allows average temperature of + 15°C (against - 18°C if there did not exist), but the “forcing anthropic of the climate” thus became very alarming, the more so as the very strong fossil hydrocarbon consumption by the developed countries which have “déstocké” several billion tons slowly accumulated by the biodiversity in the earth's crust during the previous billion years does not give signs of reduction;
Au beginning of the twentieth century, the world emissions were of 500 million tons of equivalent-carbon per annum. They exceeded the billion tons between the two wars and climb in a vertiginous way since. The two billion tons was reached in 1950 then, during the years 1990, the annual emissions due to the fossil fuels reached six billion tons. Between 1990 and 2000 these emissions were on average of 6,4 billion tons of carbon equivalent and they reached in median value 7,2 billion tons between 2000 and 2005. The thermal inertia of the oceans and the natural phenomena of regulation still make it possible the Earth to preserve favorable conditions at the life. Thus it absorbs by the means of the oceans of about 2 billion tons carbon equivalent and approximately 1,7 billion additional tons by means of the continental biosphere. But the difference between anthropogenic emission and natural absorption became too important: Currently, more than three billion and half of tons of equivalent-carbon are not absorbed any more and contribute to strongly increase the greenhouse effect.
To preserve the same level of energy consumption without undergoing climate warming would require simultaneously to use the capacities of regulation (sand carbon pipes) of two planets similar to the Earth. This is why the allowed solution by the majority of the decision makers is to divide by two the total world emissions between 2000 and 2050. The developing countries have a reduced room for maneuver; their emissions can only increase. This means that the rich countries must divide by four to five the emissions of the industrialized countries into less than fifty years, and of a “Facteur 9” or 10 if they wanted to avoid in the medium term a warming from 2 to 3 °C.
Le factor 4 is it possible? A land means emits a ton of equivalent-carbon per annum. An American emits of them approximately 6,8 tons, an European of about 3,2 tons on average, a French 2,5 ton and an Indian only 300 kg. Not to exceed the possibilities of planetary regulation, it would thus be necessary to bring back the world mean of annual emission to 500 kg per capita, that is to say less double of the unit consumption of the inhabitants of a country in emergence like India.
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Tenir this objective would make it possible to limit to a value close to 550 parts per million (ppm) the gas concentration greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, against 380 ppm currently and 280 ppm before the industrial era, i.e. to contain climate warming with approximately three degrees. Average the techniques exist, but to limit the total rise in the temperatures implies very voluntarist and urgent measurements, to implement as of the first decades of the 21e century.
Objective: “ ecological Efficiency ”
The whole of the reflections resulting from the partisans of the Club of Rome aimed at ensuring the men of the 21e century a correct standard of living, without exhausting the limited resources of the Earth. It is a question, in theory, of more producing with global scales, all in consuming much less resources . With this intention, it is necessary to multiply the ecological Efficience of the current use of energy and resources.According to its authors, technologies exist, but it is necessary to develop them and diffuse them to limit the call to the resources not, little, with difficulty, expensively renewable, and in particular to use less water, of energy or raw materials for a production or a service and wellbeing equivalent with those permitted by products, techniques or services former.
In other words, the “ultimate consumer” will not see a difference between the two products, only the “mode of production” of the known as product will have changed. The term “mode of production” itself must be taken with the direction (very) broad of the term, like good, the energy production, services, etc As example, one can thus improve the method of energy production which will be used in a car (that it is oil, gas, gasoline, hydrogen, etc), one can improve the methods and means of production of this car (preceded industrial, taken into account of the Life cycle of the car, in particular its recycling at the end of the lifetime), and the services which it returns (flexibility of control, consumption with the 100km, cost of implementation to the daily newspaper), without the ultimate consumer not seeing notable differences between the “normal” car and the car “factor 4”.
The origin of the term factor 4 is the objective fixed itself: it is necessary to improve of a factor the 4 modes of production; while multiplying by 4 the efficiency of the modes of production, i.e. to produce as much wealth of using four times less raw materials and energy.
" use; française" concept of " Factor 4"
The " term; Factor 4 " is used in France with a direction different from that defined in the years 1990 by the experts of the Club of Rome. It now qualifies there the commitment entered into in 2003 front the international scene by the Head of the State and the Prime Minister to divide by 4 the national gas emissions with greenhouse effect from here 2050 . This objective translates the effort which the industrialized countries must make together so that the current emissions are divided by 2 on the level of the planet (developing countries which cannot make differently than to increase their current levels of emission), thus bringing back them of more than 7 billion tons equivalent carbon (MdteqC) to 3,7 billion tons carbon equivalent, which corresponds to the annual maximum capacity of absorption by the oceans and the Biosphère.ceci implies to engage immediately of the consequent efforts to succeed in reducing by 75% the total gas emissions to greenhouse effect of the nation in less than fifty years. The Grenelle of the environment confirmed these objectives and proposed many tracks of implementations.
Application of the " Factor 4" in France: the geographical location of France (left southern in particular) exposes it more to the warming than number of the adjoining countries. The estival Heat wave of 2003 because 15.000 human losses in a few weeks, the heaviest assessment in Europe was reached in Italy with more than 25.000 people. This shows the danger which constitutes the minimal warming of 1 with 2°, 5C and a possible warming of 6°C, which would have climatic consequences, environmental and human catastrophic. As illustration: between the value of the average temperature of the sphere such as it was reconstituted during the last glaciation, 20.000 years ago, and the current value of this temperature, the variation was only of 4 with 6°C.
France aims at dividing by four from here 2050 of its emissions. This objective was successively registered in its “National strategy of sustainable development” in June 2003, in its “Plane climate” of July 2004 then in the “Law of program fixing the orientations of its energy policy” in July 2005, with confirmation in 2007 in the Grenelle of the Environment.
Réaliser the " Factor 4" consist, in other words in France, to reduce by 75% in 45 years (that is to say 3% per annum from here 2050) the gas emissions to greenhouse effect of the country.
Deux great sectors in France did not manage yet to decrease their emissions: the sector of the Transport S (very depend on hydrocarbons, with an aggravation related to the Périurbanisation) and that of the Building, in particular because of growth continues built park, and regular appearance of new energy uses (Ordinateur, dryers, air-conditioner, big screens flat, days before.) and because of the number overall crescent of electricals appliance or consuming an fossil energy.
If the solutions are more difficult to identify in the transport sector, that of the building already seems to constitute one of the keys for this environmental challenge, because it offers important upgrading capabilities in the short and medium term.
“Factor 4” and sector of the building
The buildings can use many energy sources, of which renewable energies. These energies can be combined and if necessary, to be modified several times over the lifespan of the buildings. In the developed countries, the sector of the building where much energy is wasted, is one of the economic sectors most favorable for the realization of the " Factor 4". Factor 4 will remain however much easier to reach in the new building than via the restoration. The improvement of the energy performances of the buildings can be programmed over several years, increasing the financial asset of the good. The old building can also profit from the production of new houses énergétiquement positive built in the vicinity.The behavior and the needs for the occupants of the buildings are relatively stable in time. The evolution of their needs is generally done on long cycles, without brutal rupture, and it can be reasonably anticipated. Sensitizing can also favorably modify the behaviors.
In France…
The sector of the building currently consumes 68,2 million tons of oil equivalent, that is to say 42,5% of total final energy. It is each year more than one ton of oil equivalent consumed by each inhabitant. He in parallel generates 123 million tons of CO, that is to say 23% of the national emissions. This corresponds to 33,5 million tons of carbon, that is to say a carbon semitone released each year in the atmosphere by each inhabitant.Parmi the various gases with greenhouse effect emitted by the buildings, CO2 represents majority gas to a total value of 96% because of the contents raised out of carbon of fossile fuels consumed for the heating as of the electricity used during the periods very froides.
L' energy is consumed for 2/3 in the residences and 1/3 in the tertiary sector. This proportion currently remains appreciably constant since twenty ans.
On account in France 30,7 million residences, including 25,8 million main homes, 3 million second home and 1,9 million vacant housings.
Les main homes represents a surface of approximately 2,65 billion m ², to compare with the 850 million m ² of surface heated of the tertiary sector.
This 3,5 billion m ² heated will be all to treat to arrive at Factor 4.
In France exists a national plan of support to the R & D and for the buildings demonstrators, aec of the incentives to work of energy saving, reinforced lawful requirements, communication campaigns near the general public and of education acts near the professionals (ADEME, communities…).
Terminology : The buildings known as “old hand” (built before 1975, date of installation of the first energy regulation) and recent, in their globality, are qualified “buildings existing” , constituting the current stock of buildings where exists always a layer of energy saving, very profitable for those which are easiest to make.
Les new buildings is those built during the past year. They represent the annual flow of construction.
La median value over the period 1990-2002 was of 300000 residences and 12,4 million m ² of heated tertiary buildings. Housing construction has these last years continued to strongly grow with 410.000 operational startups in 2005.
important Weight of the existing buildings: the renewal rate of the old buildings by new buildings is lower than 1% per annum. Without extra effort carried out, this low level, associated with the current rhythm of the rehabilitations would involve a raising of the energy performances of the totality of the buildings built before 1975 only in more than one century (the buildings built before the thermal regulations could constitute between 60 to 75% of the park in 2050).
On however notes a regular reduction of the total intake of this old park (reduction of 49% per m ² and 28% by housing of 1973 to 2005, thanks to the renewal of the boilers of which the lifespan is much lower than that of the frame, and thanks to work of thermo isolation. The Sofres measurement annually the completion rate and of investments in control of energy by the households. Those relate to a relatively stable share from 11 to 12% of the households which invest on average 25 euros per m ² of livable space.
Même if this rate/rhythm of investment represents an amount of about 125 €/m ² invested on average by housing from here 2050, these improvements are however very insufficient to place the sector of the building on the trajectory of the " Factor 4 " , which would require at least 200 euros per m ² for buildings relatively easy to treat and more than 400 euros per m ² for more delicate buildings to rehabilitate or requiring a strong integration of renewable energies. Paid to the heated total park of 3,5 billion m ² of heated buildings evoked above, this will correspond to an entire investment cumulated from here 2050 about 1000 billion euros in order to reduce closest to the " Factor 4" total energy consumptions of all the buildings in service. Two thirds of this investment would relate to the households for amounts which would be at least of 20000 euros and could exceed the 40 000 euros, to invest in their residences into three to four decades.
For an energy improvement of the whole of constructions, many new measurements were elaborate in France, mainly under the impulse of the " European directive on the energy performance of buildings (DEPEB) ". Grenelle of the environment proposed at the end of October 2007 to go further and more quickly, very by developing the approach HQE. The energy regulations of the new and existing buildings should be still improved and fiscally constant, and the energy diagnosis of buildings (DPE) developed, with periodic visits of the boilers and of the equipment of air-conditioning, financial supports (tax credits) to the investments of control of energy, certificates of energy saving, houses énergétiquement positive, etc
Ceci will require efforts organisational, technological and financial very great and fast.
energy Regulations: Their requirements evolve/move regularly and they are considered to accelerate research on materials and components, equipment and on the overall concept, which then makes it possible to fix new requirements in order to limit climate warming and to anticipate the exhaustion of the traditional energy sources.
Lor rate/rhythm of publication accelerated in the USA, in Europe and France (and in many countries), but primarily for the new building and since the end of the year 1990. Regulatory requirements are in hand for the existing buildings.
- In France, twelve years had been passed between the regulation thermics 1988 (RT 1988) and the RT 2000. A five years variation separated the publication of the RT 2000 of that from the RT 2005 which set up a reinforcement of 15% of the requirements on the new buildings in France. The public authorities already announced the RT 2010 and one new jump from at least 15%, that the grenelle one of the Environment wants to still exceed in the medium term.
The “ Facteur 4 ” does not seem however to be able to be reached for all the existing buildings for economic reasons or techniques. In compensation, the totality of the new buildings must very slightly become énergivore or énergétiquement positive in term of total assessment. In the future, the originators of new buildings should continue to push the energy by putting in application the results of research and integrating very strongly renewable energies, local, clean and sure performances.
However, except developing new methods of insulation of the old building, even by admitting that they arrive at factor 7 to 8 (i.e. 7 to 8 times less gas emissions with greenhouse effect than a of the same building configuration builds in 2000), it will not be all the same possible to buckle the assessment because of the very weak weight of flow compared to that of stock.
Buildings with positive energy
With this intention, it is necessary that most of the new buildings are even more powerful while not being more consumers of energy, also weak this consumption is it, but producing Nets of energy thanks to a very strong integration as of their design of equipment using of renewable energies. This could be reached only by significant efforts as regards R & D and experimentation.It is the object of PREBAT, Research the National plan of and experimentation on Energy in the Building industries launched in 2005 to France and set up in its first phase until 2009, then renewable then.
PREBAT engages five ministries (housing, equipment, ecology, research, industry) at the sides of five national agencies: ADEME (Agency of the environment and the control of energy), ANAH (Agency of the improvement of the habitat), ANR (National agency of research), ANRU (National agency of urban renovation) and OSEO Anvar (French Agency of the innovation). It makes it possible to support by the means of regular calls for offer of the hundreds of actors of the building eager to progress. It thus creates the conditions of the most complete possible mobilization, in order to optimize or to renew usual technologies, but also in order to make it possible to insert much more strongly and in a generalized way renewable energies in the sector of the building.
La proof will be brought from there as from 2007 by the realization to France of buildings demonstrators to very energy high efficiencies, whose realization and follow-up over their first years of operation will be also constant within the framework of the PREBAT.
Les results of research and the experiments will make it possible to record the levels of the regulatory requirements, which will authorize new research efforts.
See too
External bonds
- Summarized book Facteur4
- Presentation of some principles of Factor 4 (by one of the authors of the report/ratio, Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker),… and its translation in French
- Example of construction of a house '' Facteur 9 ''