Climate warming

For the cyclic variations of the History of the climate, lira the article Climate change

---- The climate warming , also called global warming or, by Anglicism, total warming (of total English warming ), is a phenomenon of increase, on a world scale and over several years, of the average Température of the Océan S and the atmosphere. In its common meaning, this term has been applied to the Climate change observed for approximately twenty-five years, i.e. since the end of the 20th century. The scientific community allots to this total warming a human origin. It is the intergovernmental Group of expert on the evolution of the climate (GIEC) which determines this scientific consensus. The Fourth report/ratio of the GIEC is the latest to date.

Last evolution of the temperatures and consequences

Climatic cycles

See also: Climate change

The corings of ice make it possible today to go down, in the Antarctic, until more than 3.500 meters of depth. These invaluable files contain, in the bubbles of air, of the indications on the content gas of the atmosphere of formerly. They have helped us to include/understand the climate of the Earth for one period who goes up up to 750.000 years. The climatologists agree on the fact that the Ground crossed several cycles of warming and planetary cooling during the 400.000 last years.

According to them, approximately a 100.000 years cycle was repeated during this period. This cycle starts with a brutal warming followed by one hot period from 10.000 to approximately 20.000 years, called interglacial Period. This period is followed by a progressive cooling and glacial installation the one era old (or Glaciation). At the end of the glaciation, a brutal warming starts a new cycle. The last interglacial period has corresponded to time present and hard for more than 10.000 years.

The variations of the climate are correlated with those of the Insolation, of the Paramètres of Milanković, the Albédo, the solar cycles and the concentrations in the athmosphère of gases with Greenhouse effect like the Carbon dioxide and of the aerosols.

Historical times

Inside the great climatic fluctuations that the Earth knew, one finds of the variations shorter and more limited in intensity. Thus, during the last millenium, one could see appearing one hot period with called “the medieval Optimum”: it is the time when the navigators Vikings discover and baptize Greenland (literally “green country”) and found colonies in the extreme south of the island. In the same way, the time of Modern times (1550-1850) knew one period of cooling which the historians call the “Petit Ice Age”. It is during this period colder than one finds the most rigorous winters, in particular the terrible winter 1708-1709. According to the reconstitutions of temperatures carried out by the climatologists, the last decade of the 21st century and the beginning of the XXIième constitute the last two millenia the hottest period (see graphic). Our time would be indeed hotter of some tenth of degrees compared to the medieval Optimum.

20th century

Terrestrial measurements of temperature carried out during the 20th century show a rise in the average temperature. This warming would have proceeded in two phases, the first of 1910 with 1945, the second of 1976 to today. These two phases seem separated by one period of light cooling. This global warming seems moreover correlated with a strong increase in the atmosphere of the concentration of several Gaz to greenhouse effect, of which the Carbon dioxide, the Méthane and the Protoxyde of nitrogen.

The rise in the average temperature of the sphere during the 20th century would thus have been of 0,6 °C.

A polemic was started on the validity of these measurements, for more details, to see article Controverse on climate warming

Observations related to current climate warming

Several changes were observed in the world which seem coherent with the existence of a planetary climate warming. It should however be noted that the bond between this warming and the made observations are not always established in a sure way. In France it is the ONERC which coordinates the observations.

• the climate . According to the third report/ratio of GIEC, the distribution of precipitations changed during the 20th century. In particular, precipitations would have become more important with the average and high of the northern hemisphere, and less important latitudes in the subtropical zones of this same hemisphere. Other experts consider however the data current too rare and incomplete so that an upward trend or with the fall of precipitations can be released on zones of this width.

• It would seem that the phenomena El Niño became more frequent than in the past.

• cast iron of portions of Ice-barrier . Several studies indicate that the ice-barriers are being reduced. On the one hand satellite observations show that these ice-barriers lose surface in the Arctic Ocean. In addition, a thinning of these ice-barriers, in particular around the north pole, was observed. According to the scientific teams working on this subject, this reduction is due to global warming. The Greenland saw its glaciers being reduced from 230 to 80 billion tons per annum of 2003 to 2005, which would contribute to 10% of the rise in the sea level.

• retreat of the glaciers of mountains . With rare exceptions, the whole of the studied mountain glaciers are in phase of retreat. The glaciers of the the Himalayas move back quickly and could disappear in the fifty next years, according to experts brought together with Katmandou for a conference on climate warming on June 4th, 2007. The temperatures in this area grew of 0,15 °C with 0,6 °C every 10 years during the 30 last years. Many work documents this retreat and seeks to explain it. Such a retreat seems completely coherent with a warming of the climate. But that already existed in the past: for example the current retreat of the Mer of Ice to Chamonix discovers human vestiges of the Moyen-âge, proof that the glacier already melted more than nowadays at a historically close period. , the detailed study of certain glaciers shows that many factors intervene, like precipitations or the phenomenon El Niño, which are not necessarily directly related to current global warming. It is finally necessary to underline to it quasi absence of data on the Himalayan glaciers. For example, there exist reliable data only on 50 Indian glaciers, on more: 9500.

• husbandries . The climate, and in particular the temperatures, have an effect on the date of agricultural harvests. In many cases the dates of Vendange S are regularly advanced, like that of the Raisin in Burgundy. Moreover these phenomena can be described over several decades because these dates of grape harvest were consigned in the past and were filed. Such documents are used to determine the temperatures at periods when the Thermomètre S did not exist or missed precise details. A climate warming since the XXe century is clearly described by the study of these files.

• Cyclones, typhoons . A study published in 2005 and called in question since by a second study, watch which the intensity of the cyclones would have overall increased between 1970 and 2004 whereas the full number of cyclones would have decreased overall for the same period. According to this study, it is possible that this increase in intensity is related to climate warming, but the period of observation is too short and the role of the cyclones in flows athmospheric and oceanic is not sufficiently known so that this relation can be established with certainty. The second study published one year later watch as for it that the intensity of the cyclones would not have increased to a significant degree since 1986.

• Surfaces of distribution . Several research teams observed a modification of the surface of distribution of various animal species and vegetable. In certain cases, in particular when this surface moves towards the north or worms moreover high-altitudes, planetary climate warming is sometimes proposed as causes these modifications.

Example of work at the processionary caterpillar of the pine.

• the rise in the sea level . Various data obtained using marigraphs and from satellites were studied. Their analysis suggests that the sea level rose during the 20th century of several tens of centimetres, and that it continues to rise regularly. This rise in the sea level can also be observed indirectly by its consequences on the environment, as it is the case with the New Brunswick.

Arguments on the human origin of climate warming

Climate warming is largely allotted to a additional Greenhouse effect, which had with the rejections of Gaz to greenhouse effect and mainly the emissions of CO₂, because of the human activities. The experts of GIEC confirmed on February 2nd, 2007 that the probability that climate warming is due to the human activity is higher than 90%. Their conclusions are drawn from the results of experiment S on numerical Modèle S. August 1st

Critical of the assumption of a human origin

• According to certain scientists the rises of temperature would have with the fact that measurements were made meadows of urban centres. effect “Small island of Heat urban” the impact of the human activity on climate warming is illustrated by a comparison between the temperatures of the days of week and those of the ends of the week: an American study led by bearing Forster over 30 years and more than 1000 stations shows that the variations in temperature of the weekends, of 0,5 °C on average, are stronger than the other days of the week. This difference between days of week and weekends is correlated with the weekly cycle of the human activity (strong the week and low the weekend).

• One of the other arguments brought by the scientists who do not think that the human activity is responsible for the warming of the Earth is that the same phenomenon is also observable over Mars, and that it is there even up to four times faster; however, there is no human activity over Mars, which can result in thinking that the same cause is at the origin of the two observations. This assumption is however rejected by the climatologists who support the anthropic assumption; according to them, the causes of the warming of Mars are specific to this planet, and to in no case related to an external origin, in particular solar, which would be shared with the Earth.

Forecasts

Climatic models

The forecast by the scientists of the future trend of the climate was made possible by the use of data-processing models of this one. These models, known as of general circulation, simulate displacements and the temperatures of the atmospheric and oceanic masses. Most recent also take into account other phenomena, as the cycle of carbon.

These models are regarded as valid by the scientific community when they are able to simulate known variations of the climate, like the seasonal variations, the phenomenon El Niño, or the North Atlantic oscillation. The most recent models simulate in a satisfactory way the temperature variations during the 20th century.

The data-processing models simulating the climate are used by the scientists to envisage the future trend of the climate, but also to determine the causes of current climate warming, by comparing the climate changes observed with the changes induced in these models by various natural or human causes.

There exist causes of uncertainties in the operation of these models, nature mathematical, data-processing, physical, etc the two independent sources of uncertainty mentioned by the climatologists are:

• the modeling of the clouds.
• the simulation of phenomena of small scales, like the stormy cells, or the effect of the relief on atmospheric circulation.

In a more general way, these models are limited by the capacities of calculation of the current computers and the limited knowledge of their originators, because the Climatologie and the phenomena to be modelled are of a great complexity.

In spite of these limitations, GIEC regards the climatic models as relevant tools to provide useful forecasts of the climate.

Continuation of climate warming

For the climatologists gathered within GIEC (IPCC in English), the increase in the temperatures will continue during the 21e century. The extent of the awaited warming most probable is from 1,8 to 3,4 degrees Celsius.

Uncertainties as for the extent of the awaited warming have two sources:

• uncertainties related to the models (see higher);
• and uncertainties on the behavior of humanity during the 21e century. In order to take into account this last parameter in their predictions, the climatologists of GIEC used a family of 40 scenarios of gas emission with greenhouse effect detailed in the SRES (Special carryforward one Emission Scenarios, Web site in English). In certain scenarios, the growth of the human population and economic development are strong, while the energy sources used are mainly fossil. In other scenarios, one or more of these parameters are modified, causing a less strong consumption of fossil energies, and a less strong production of gas with greenhouse effect. The scenarios used as working hypothesis for the development of the third report/ratio of GIEC (2001) do not take into account the possibility of an intentional modification of the gas emissions with greenhouse effect on a worldwide scale.

Uncertainties related to the operation of the models are measured by comparing the results of several models for the same scenario, and by comparing the effects of small modifications of the scenarios of emission in each model.

The variations observed in climatic simulations are at the origin of a scattering of the forecasts of about 1,3 to 2,4 degrees, for a scenario (demographic, of growth, “mix energetics world”, etc) given. The type of scenario considered has an effect of about 2,6 degrees on the climate warming simulated by these models and explains a good part of the margin of uncertainty existing as for the extent of the warming to come.

The forecasts of increase in temperature for the horizon 2100 data by GIEC (SPM of the AR4 2007) spread out from 1,1 to 6,3 °C. The experts of GIEC refine their forecasts by giving values considered as “the best estimates”, which makes it possible to reduce the fork by 1,8 to 4,0 °C. And by eliminating scenario A1F1, considered as unrealistic person, the increase in temperature would lie between 1,8 and 3,4 °C.

The scientists of GIEC consider that these predictions are the best currently possible predictions, but which they are always prone to readjustments or questionings progressively of the scientific projections. They consider that it is necessary to obtain more realistic models and a better comprehension of the climatic phenomena, as well as associated uncertainties.

However, many climatologists think that the improvements made to the climatic models will not modify their results basically , namely that global warming will continue and that its width will be more or less important according to the quantity of gas with greenhouse effect emitted by the human activities during the 21e century.

The last scientific articles show that the year 2005 was hottest of all the history of meteorology, that the warming accelerates (0,8 °C in one century, including 0,6 °C over the thirty last years), but also according to the analysis of marine sediments, which current heat is in the top of the scale of the temperatures since the beginning of the Holocène, i.e. 12.000 years.

Physical consequences of climate warming

See also: physical Consequences of climate warming

The models used to predict future global warming can also be used to simulate the consequences of this warming on the other physical parameters of the ground, like the caps of ice, precipitations or the sea level. In this field, a certain number of consequences of climate warming are the object of a consensus among the climatologists.

rise of water

One of the consequences of global warming on which the scientists agree is a rise of the level of the oceans. Two phenomena generate this rise:

• increase in the volume of water due to its warming (thermal Dilation), substantial increase because of great depth of the oceans,
• and the additional water addition coming from the cast iron of the continental icecaps.

According to the third report/ratio of GIEC, the sea level rose from 0,1 to 0,2 m at the 20th century. According to this same report/ratio, the rise of the level of rise envisaged would be due mainly to the warming and the thermal Dilatation of oceanic water, the effect of the cast iron of the ices being felt possibly only with much more long run. Just as for the temperatures, uncertainties concerning the sea level are related to the models, on the one hand, and with the future gas emissions with greenhouse effect, on the other hand. However, uncertainties due to the models are stronger.

Thus, the rise envisaged in the sea level is of 18 cm to 59 cm (source: 4th report/ratio of GIEC). It could be 2 meters into 2300.

Absolute humidity

According to all obviousnesses the average absolute moisture of the air will increase (this parameter is expressed in grams of water per cubic meters of air; the meteorologists rather measure the relative humidity which is expressed in % knowing that 100% are the dewpoint). Knowing that water is the principal vector of atmospheric thermodynamics (evaporation absorbs energy and condensation restores it) the power of precipitations should also increase .

Precipitations

According to the last report/ratio of GIEC, an increase in precipitations to the high latitudes is very probable and a reduction is it probable in the subtropics, continuing an already noted tendency

Circulation thermohaline

The Circulation thermohaline indicates the movements of cool water and salted towards the oceanic funds which take seat with the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. This phenomenon is, inter alia, person in charge of the renewal of oceanic deep water and the relative softness of the European climate. For the 21e century, GIEC regarded probable a deceleration of this phenomenon, and as not very probable its stop. This complete stop and final is regarded as possible later on.

Ices and snow-covered cover

The scientists of GIEC envisage, for the 21e century a reduction in the snow-covered cover, and a withdrawal of the ice-barriers. The glaciers and icecaps of the northern hemisphere should also continue to decrease. On the other hand, the Antarctic icecap should not decrease during the 21e century.

A research team recently succeeded in highlighting a bond between the human activity and the collapse of platforms of ice in the Antarctic Plus information on the site of Futura-sciences. The local warmings would be due to a change of management of the dominant winds, this modification being itself due to the increase in the concentration of the gas air to greenhouse effect and degradation of the layer of ozone in the Antarctic because of CFC of human origin. However, these warmings are observed only locally. Indeed, the Antarctic knows an increasingly cold climate overall and its frozen cover is expanding.

Phenomena with very long run

The majority of the climatologists, think that the phenomena induced by the emission of gases with greenhouse effect will continue and to develop. The third report/ratio of GIEC insists in particular on the following points:

• Certain gases with greenhouse effect, like carbon dioxide, have a long life expectancy, and thus influence the greenhouse effect a long time after their emission.
• From the inertia of the climatic system, global warming will continue after the stabilization of the concentration of gases with greenhouse effect. This warming should however be slower.
• inertia, larger still, of the oceanic mass makes that the rise in the sea level will continue even after the stabilization of the average temperature of the sphere. The cast iron of icecaps, like that of the Greenland, is phenomena being held over millenia.

Consequences of climate warming on the man and the biosphere

Beyond the direct consequences, physics and climatic, global warming, this one will influence the ecosystem S. For the whole of the human populations, these “physical” effects and “ecological” strong repercussions will have. The very great complexity of the ecological, economic and social systems affected by climate warming does not make it possible to make forecasts quantified as for the physical modeling of the ground. However, certain points seem to make consensus in the scientific community.

• At the biological and ecological level , a scientific consensus was reached on the following points:

• Certaines biological species will see can be their surface distribution to increase, but the assessment of climate warming in terms of biodiversity will be negative according to a certain number of studies
• Certains natural systems will be more affected than others by global warming. The most significant systems would be: the Glacier S, the coral Reefs, the Mangroves, the tropical northern forests and, ecosystems polar and alpine, wet meadows;
• the damage on the natural systems, that it is by their geographical width or their intensity, will be proportional to the intensity and the speed of global warming.

• Negative consequences for humanity GIEC envisages six major negative consequences for humanity with the 21e century:

• a fall of the potential agricultural outputs in the majority of the tropical and subtropical zones;
• a reduction in the water resources in the majority of the tropical and subtropical dry areas;
• extension of the zones infested by diseases like the cholera or paludism; however, this risk is strongly undervalued by certain specialists in the malaria like Professor Paul Reiter;
• Of the increased risks of flood, at the same time because of the rise in the sea level and of modifications of the climate;
• a stronger consumption of energy at ends of air-conditioning (but a lower consumption at ends of heating);
• a fall of the potential agricultural outputs in the average and high latitudes (on the assumption of a strong warming).

• Of the positive consequences for humanity is also associated with the warming envisaged with the 21e century:

• more low fuel consumption of energy at ends of heating (but a stronger consumption at ends of Air-conditioning);
• a weaker winter mortality in the averages and high latitudes (in opposition to a more raised estival mortality, such as for example the Heat wave of 2003);
• an increase in the offer of sawlog coming from correctly managed forests;
• a possible increase in the water resources in certain tropical and subtropical dry areas but a reduction in the resources in the moderate areas (in particular in the areas of Mediterranean climate);
• a rise of the potential agricultural outputs in certain areas with the average latitudes (on the assumption of a weak warming).
• the opening of new sea routes in the Canadian far North in particular.

Attribution of climate warming

See also: Attribution of climate warming

Greenhouse effect

See also: Greenhouse effect

The Greenhouse effect is the trap of a fraction of the infra-red radiation re-emitted by the ground towards the terrestrial atmosphere. This is carried out in particular by gases called “to greenhouse effect”, increasing the tropospheric temperature. The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon. Without this effect, the temperature of surface to thermodynamic balance would be on average of 33 °C lower, that is to say -18 °C. Actually, it could be weaker still because of the important albedo due to the extension of the ices, being able to go down until approximately -100 °C.

This natural phenomenon is reinforced at an alarming speed because the quantity of gas with greenhouse effect (in particular the CO₂, naturally in very weak concentration in the atmosphere compared to water or with nitrogen) increased these last years, which results in to unbalance the radiative Bilan of the Earth. This increase is due to the combustion of carbonaceous matter fossil (as proves it the isotopic study). The scientists thus established that the greenhouse effect generated by the man is the main cause of current global warming.

According to the conclusions of GIEC in his ratio of 2001, the most probable cause of this warming in second half of the 20th century would be “forcing anthropic”, i.e. the increase in the atmosphere of the Gaz to greenhouse effect resulting from the human activity. It is expected that global warming continues during the 21e century but the amplitude of this warming is discussed. According to the assumptions selected and the models employed, the forecasts for the 50 years to come go from 1,8 to 3,4 °C.

The assumption of a bond between the average temperature of the sphere and the rate of Carbonic gas in the atmosphere was formulated for the first time in 1894 by Svante Arrhenius. In 1979, at the time of the first world conference on the Climate, is advanced for the first time on the international scene the possibility of an impact of the human activity on the climate. The rather massive adhesion of certain scientists to this cause is recent, but a controversy exists as for the causes of this warming. Climatologists support indeed that the warming observed is only the consequence of natural phenomena (such as the fluctuations of the Solar activity and those of the terrestrial orbit) . This position is however minority among the climatologists.

The models can also be used to consider the importance relative of the various factors natural and human.

The causes of global warming are generally not prone to controversies. What is discussed more is the relative contribution of each possible cause. Among those, one can quote:

1. retention of heat by the atmosphere, amplified by gases with Greenhouse effect;
2. cyclic fluctuations of the solar activity;
3. reflectivity of terrestrial surface (Albédo) which is modified by the Déforestation, the projection of the deserts, agriculture, retreat of the ices, snows and glaciers, but also by the artificial cirri created by the trailed of the planes and urban spreading out;
4. the ic emissions Volcano;
5. …

Some of these causes are of human origin, like the deforestation and the production of Carbonic gas by fossil matter combustion. Others are natural, like the volcanic solar activity or emissions. Let us note that the tectonic activity could possibly be modified by a brutal cast iron of the icecaps and the increase in the mass of the oceans which would result from it. Climatic simulations show that the warming observed of 1910 to 1945 can be explained by the only variations of the solar radiation (see Climate change).

The majority of the models show that it is necessary to take account of the emission of Gaz with greenhouse effect of human origin, which could partially explain the warming observed of 1976 to 2006. In his ratio of 2001, GIEC concludes that the anthropogenic gases with greenhouse effect “play a big role in the total warming”.
One of the evidence that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ is of human origin results from isotopic analyzes . In 2003, the American Geophysical Union affirmed that “the natural influences do not make it possible to explain the fast rise of the temperatures on the surface of the sphere. ”

June 7th, 2005, the Academies of Science of the countries of G8 (Germany - Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina, Canada - Royal Society off Canada, the United States of America - National Academy off Sciences, France - Academy of Science, Italy - Accademia dei Lincei, Japan - Science Council off Japan, the United Kingdom - Royal Society, Russia - Academy of Science of Russia) and those of the three larger countries in the process of development consuming oil (China - Chinese Academy off Sciences, India - Indian National Science Academy, Brazil - Academia Brasileira de Ciencias) signed a Joint Declaration to London, affirming that the doubt maintained by some at the place the climate changes does not justify any more the inaction and that on the contrary, it is necessary “to immediately engage” a planetary action plan to entreat this total threat. To see the French translation of the Joint Declaration of the Academies of Science on the total answer to the climate change.

Fluctuations of the solar activity

Arguments for

In March 2007 Martin Durkin collection in his film (French Subtitle) (the great swindle of the total warming) the testimony of famous scientists defending this theory as causes major historical variations of temperature. In an article of Daily Telegraph " Total-warmers The were bound to attack, goal why are they so feeble? " . The film quotes in particular recent studies of Ján Veizer (Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center, University off Ottawa), 2005 showing this correlation to various scales of time as well as the influence complementary to other types of cosmic radiations having in particular an influence on the water evaporation and the cloud cover.

The list of the 20 personalities (18 researchers) is available in the corresponding article The Great Global Warming Swindle (Contributors to the program)

Arguments against

In 2001, Peter Stott and other researchers of the Hadley center of the the United Kingdom published a bearing article on the model of digital simulation most complete ever carried out over the 20th century. Their study included/understood at the same time the natural agents of forcing (solar variations and volcanic emissions) and the forcing anthropic (gas with greenhouse effect and sulfates in the forms of aerosols). Following the example Lassen and of Thejll, they found that the natural factors explained a gradual warming until 1960, followed by a return to temperatures close to those to the end to the 19th century, in agreement with the gradual change of solar forcing during the 20th century and of the volcanic activity of the last decades. These factors alone were unable to explain the warming of the last decades. In a similar way, forcing anthropic only could not explain the warming of the period 1910-1945, but proved necessary to simulate the warming since 1976. However, by combining all these intervening factors, the team of Stott was able to precisely simulate the planetary changes of temperatures during the 20th century. They predicted that the emission continues gas with greenhouse effects would cause future rises of temperature “at intervals similar to that which one could observe during the last decades.” Graphics of the relation between the factors natural and anthropic contributing to the change of climate are reproduced on the report/ratio '' Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis '' of GIEC.

In the edition of May 6th, 2000 of the American magazine “New Scientist”, Lassen and the astrophysicist Peter Thejll, supplementing the study of 1991 with new data, concluded that although the solar cycle can explain approximately half of the increase in temperature observed since 1900, it could in no manner of explaining the increase in 0,4°C since 1980.

In 1991, Knud Lassen of the Danish Institute of meteorology of Copenhagen and its colleague Eigil Friis-Christensen found a strong correlation between the length of the solar cycle and the changes of temperature in the Northern hemisphere. At the beginning, they had included the sunspots and the temperature measurements raised between 1861 and 1989, but realized later that recordings going back to four centuries supported their discovery. This correlation made it possible to explain 80% of the temperature variations during the period considered (see graphic). This study, and the associated graph were disputed thereafter, because founded on erroneous values. Dirtied Baliunas, an astronomer of the center of astrophysics of Harvard-Smithsonian Institution, was one of the burning supportrices of the theory than the solar activity “can explain the major changes of the climate in the 300 last years, in particular the current total warming”. However, the data indicate that the correlation between the temperatures and the solar activity is not valid any more for the thirty last years, the latter having remained about constant: to see here

Human consequences of climate warming

Made observations these last years indicate that global warming could cause important climate changes. The circulation of the oceans, phenomenon which seems to be the key of such variations, undergoes a phase of deceleration which the oceanographers consider worrying, related to a reduction in the salinity of water of the Northern Atlantique. The American Academy of Science note, in a ratio of 2002: “it is important not to adopt a fatalistic attitude opposite the threats posed by the change of climate. (...) The companies had to deal with gradual changes of the climate or lasting precipice of the millenia and knew to adapt thanks to various reactions, such as sheltering, to develop the irrigation or to migrate towards hospital areas. Nevertheless, because the change of the climate is intended to continue in the next decades, to deny the possibility of climatic events precipice or to minimize their impact in the past could prove to be expensive. ”.

Many researchers predict disastrous consequences in the event of a warming of 1,5 with 7°C, and the majority estimate that by limiting the total warming to 1°C, the consequences would be of great width but would remain acceptable.

To measure so much is little the width which this problem for the Earth and especially humanity can take, here a small lighting flashback. The climate of there is a little more than 10.000 years was a glacial climate: km thickness of ice recovered Scandinavia, the level of the oceans were 100 meters lower (men could shelter in the Cosquer cave - reserved today for the senior plungers - to paint beautiful frescos there) and two thirds of the French soil were unsuitable with the culture because permanently cold. Since, the average temperature rose of 4,5°C. This point has an major importance.

In the same way, other people see in this warming the first steps of a radical change of the world. The famines generated by the warming and the lack of oil (cf Biocarburants), in the same way of the insolvency of the USA (51% of the world military expenditure) would put the world under tension until explosion according to a report/ratio of the Pentagon of October 2003.

Environment and built cultural heritage

See also: ecological Crisis

On a total scale one scénarise of the modifications of the circulation of the oceans, a change of the important climate, a loss of Biodiversity and damage irreversible on the Agriculture in the most affected écorégion S. In certain areas, like the Western Europe and the Bangladesh, the damage could appear serious, because of the loss of the warming by the Gulf Stream and the rise of the oceans on a world level respectively. One fears as more frequent appearances of destructive climatic phenomena, and the experts in risk of the insurance companies asking as be applied on this subject the Precaution principle. Estimates recognized by GIEC and certain insurers raise to 3,5 billion the number of people who could be touched by Pandémie S, the disappearance of sources of drinking water and other impacts possible.

The effects of climate warming on the environment were observed since 1979 in the Antilles in the form of a whitening of the coral reefs. It was the first index of climate warming in progress. This phenomenon developed regularly in space and time with scales always more surprising, for example on the scale of the Indian Ocean in 1998. If the warming continues with the current rhythm, it will result an extinction from it from mass of the coral reefs to the planetary scales from 2015/2020. One is unaware of still if this collapse will have an effect of Bombe to carbon.

In addition, of many public and governmental organizations negative potential effects on the Environnement and the Agriculture fear.

These problems are themselves matter with considerable controversies. On a side, the environmentalists groups stress the possible dangers of global warming, while others, as well as industrial lobbies, question the climatic models and the consequences of global warming. These industrial lobbies bring financings to certain scientists who support their theses.

Because of the potential effects on the Public health and the economy, global warming causes concern. Important environmental changes could be connected to the phenomenon global warming. The noted consequences (regression of the snowy coat, rise of the oceans, changes weather) can influence not only the human activity, but also the ecosystem. In a scenario where the warming would continue, certain species would be forced to migrate towards other habitats (with a possible extinction), while others could extend beyond their habitat from origin. Few écorégion S terrestrial would remain unscathed.

Culture: In 2007, for the first time, the World monuments fund (WMF, Funds world for the monuments ) introduced the climatic modifications into the list of the threats for 100 sites, monuments and threatened chiefs of works of architecture, the other threats principal being the political wars and conflicts, and industrial development and urban anarchistic.

Rise of water

See also: Assembled oceanic level

Another source of concern is the rise of the oceanic level. The increase observed is from 1 to 2 centimetres per decade, and certain islands of the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean worry about a continual rise of water, which could in the long term submerge them completely, more especially as to this phenomenon of rise of water a phenomenon even more important of subduction is added (depression of the grounds in the Ocean) (see in particular the article on the archipelago of the Tuvalu and the écoréfugié S). ; Voluminal expansion of the water of the oceans The level goes up currently primarily because of the voluminal expansion of water with heat: it is thermal Dilatation. The rise envisaged in the sea level is of 18 cm to 59 cm, for 2100. (source: 4th report/ratio of GIEC).

; Total cast iron of the caps of ice But certain scientists fear the cast iron of the polar icecaps and the Glacier S.

Indeed the cast iron of the terrestrial ices of the Antarctic would bring an additional significant amount of water to the oceans, However, to moderate these fears, the community of the scientists does not expect a major snow melt in the 100 next years. (Data: GIEC). The effects on the level of the oceans this phenomenon is not considered by the experts of GIEC. the frequency of the storms of winter and the extreme weather conditions doubled during the 50 last years ”.)-->

; Continental water The increase in evaporation should locally increase the rainfall and the erosion of the grounds and thus the Turbidité and the Eutrophisation of water, which would disturb a little more the ecosystems. Moreover, many which is those fear more extreme climatic phenomena as the warming progresses.

Climatic variations

In the event of climate warming, the engine which animates the marine currents would be threatened. Indeed, the currents acquire to them kinetic energy at the time of the diving of cool water and salted, and thus dense, in the depths of the Arctic Ocean. However, the increase in the temperature should increase evaporation in the tropical areas and precipitations in the areas of high latitudes. The Atlantic Ocean, while being heated, would then receive more rains, and in parallel the icecap could partially melt.

In such circumstances, one of the direct consequences would be a massive fresh water contribution to the accesses of the poles, involving a reduction in marine salinity and thus in the density of surface water. That can prevent their diving in the oceanic abyssals zone. Thus, the currents such as the Gulf Stream could slow down or stop, and more not ensure current heat exchange between the equator and moderate zones.

According to certain theses, this phenomenon of stop of the Gulf Stream, due to climate warming, could generate a paradoxical effect: by its unequal distribution of heat, a glacial era in Europe and in the areas with high latitudes. Indeed, Europe is located at the same latitude as Quebec, and the only difference in climate lies in the fact that Europe benefits from the thermal contribution of the GULF-Stream. The equator, contrary, would then accumulate a heat harassing stimulant with this fact the continual formation of hurricanes bringing precipitations of great width.

However, it is by no means established that the Gulf Stream is the cause of the soft winters in Europe. Indeed, Richard Seager published in 2002 the only scientific study on the influence of the Gulf Stream on the climate. Its conclusions are without call: the effect of the Gulf Stream is a myth and has a negligible effect on the climate in Europe. The difference between the winter temperatures between North America and Europe is due within the meaning of the dominant winds (icy continental wind of north on the east coast of North America and oceanic wind of the west in Europe) and with the configuration of the Rocky Mountains.

Polar ices

The assessment on the polar ices is contrasted. One notes a retreat of the polar ices well on the circumference of the Arctic and antarctic grounds, and the polar seas are more navigable than they never were it. But in same time, the thickness of the ice increases in the central part of the Antarctic, and Greenland. Indeed, the atmospheric warming is accompanied there by an increase in precipitations (very weak in normal weather) and thus in snowing up. The two effects should be made balance during a few decades, until the expansion of the glaciers reaches its boundary point (flow of the ices towards the sea).

Certain “positive” effects ?

Locally (out of the dry zones and heats which could become it still more) and/or initially, an increase in the temperature united to that of the concentration of CO₂ in the air and the rains, of the temperatures could improve the productivity of the ecosystems, but beyond a certain threshold, following tests in laboratory and outside, the models of GIEC predict that a rate of CO₂ would not profit any more with the plants, the negative effects then being able to carry it. The satellites show that the productivity of the Northern hemisphere increased since 1982, but partly also because of the general eutrophication of the ecosystems, the rains themselves bringing of the agricultural manure of origin (nitrates) where they were formerly absent.
the increase in the biomass is in addition not necessarily beneficial, the Biodiversité being likely still to regress, even if some species would benefit from it. Lastly, the increase in the evapotranspiration in summer, related to a productivity doped by CO₂, in the event of brutal dryness would decrease the ecological Résilience, while worsening the risk of forest fires with CO2 salting out and impoverishment of the soil.
On is also unaware of from when the ecosystems (marine in particular) react negatively to the acidification of water by increasing dissolution of quantities of carbon dioxide.

From an economic point of view, a reduction in the polar ices would open new trade route for the ships, while also making oil local easier to extract, but could be factor of regression of many species (of which plankton and fish of high commercial value).

An increase in the total biomass would probably not compensate for a retreat of species cultivated, fished and driven out. The total assessment cannot to date be calculated, but it could be désavantageux, even in the zones where the positive effects would be felt more. For GIEC put out of balance with the negative effects, these some positive aspects do not make it possible to regard climate warming as overall beneficial.

Bad surprise

The scientists name racings of the climatic machine thus when a threshold is exceeded. In a language more believed, one calls them Bombe with carbon. “Surprises” were already observed during preceding climate warmings, at the glacial end of one era. The climate can be thus heated in a few years of several degrees. An example relates to the methane hydrates. The Méthane (CH₄, which is not other than natural gas, with some “impurities” near), is a gas with greenhouse effect 23 times more heating that CO₂. It is formed when the decomposition of the organic matter is carried out with a lack of oxygen, and under the action of bacteria, a process named Méthanisation. The wet grounds (marsh) are very favourable with this creation of methane, which is then released in the atmosphere (that can give place to self-ignition and one can observe will-o'-the-wisps). If the ground is of colder, methane remains trapped in the ice in the shape of methane hydrates. The ground of Siberia is thus an immense methane tank (too diffuse to undoubtedly be exploited industrially): the department of the geological investigations of the USA evaluated that this tank could be same width as all gas, the Pétrole and coal joined together! However, the magazine Science & Vie of April 2006 rather gave like value 1.400 WP, compared to 5000 WP for the whole of fossile fuels. If the ground is heated, the ice melts and releases methane, which has as an immediate consequence a racing of the warming…

See also: Circulation thermohaline

Another type of surprises is the stop (or the deceleration) of the circulation of the oceans. The ocean collects today one the third of CO₂ emitted by the human activities. But if the oceanic currents stop, the surface layers of water will be saturated with CO₂ and any more will not collect any like today. Worse: the quantity of CO₂ which one liter of water can absorb decreases as water is heated. Thus, of CO₂ could be salted out if the oceans do not circulate any more like today. Moreover, the accumulation of CO₂ in the oceans leads to the acidification of the latter, which could affect the marine ecosystem.

The engines of the circulation of the oceans are of two types: water while approaching the poles cools and becomes thus denser. Moreover, the sea water which freezes rejects its salt in liquid water: the ice consists of fresh water. Thus, the sea water, in the vicinity of the caps of ice, takes care out of salt and becomes even denser. Water thus plunges and supplies the pump: the hotter water of surface is aspired. The water of the bottom (cold) goes up in the zones of the tropics and/or equatorial and is heated by forming a cycle.

If the caps of ice found, the pump is blocked: indeed, the water which plunges comes from the cap and either from the water cooled coming from the tropics! A similar effect is observed if precipitations increase with the high latitudes (what is extremely foreseeable): the water which will plunge will be the fresh water of rain… In the long term, one risks the stop of the Gulf Stream.

Displacements of population

See also: climatic Refugee

Right now a certain number of populations started to migrate of the places at the risks towards other places which they consider surer:

• the inhabitants of the locality of Lateu, on the island of Tegua, in the archipelago of Vanuatu, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean started to dismount their houses of wood to move their higher village 600 meters.
• the two thousand inhabitants of the islands Carteret, with broad of the New Guinea-News-Guinea, and whose palm trees often bathe in water, started to leave their villages to be installed, at four hours of boat in south-west, on the island Bougainville.

Modifications of the lifestyle

After being itself felt sorry for to be increasingly hot in 2006, the Inuit S of the Far North Québécois, obtained a reduction of the tariffs of electricity. In June, the Temperature having reached 31 °C during nearly one week, Larry Watt, well-named the mayor of Kuujjuak, the capital of the Nunavik, order of ten Climatiseur S for the municipal council placed.

Economy

A ratio of 700 pages to sir Nicholas Stern, English economist, estimates that climate warming would involve a serious economic recession and the economic costs quantify some with: 5500 billion euros, that is to say more than the two joined together world wars.

States vis-a-vis the climatic threat

See also: Answers to climate warming

The governments need predictions of the general tendencies in order to be able to make political decisions necessary to avoid undesirable impacts.

Global warming is studied by many experts, and in particular on a world level, by GIEC. The reports/ratios provided by GIEC are used as a basis for the scientific and political discussions.

The prediction of increase in temperature of 1,5°C with 7°C for the century to come, could be brought back to lower values provided that severe environmental measures are taken or that a real candidate for technologies of the Pétrole emerges in order to allow the abandonment of the exploitation of the fossil resources. Research in order to find a substitute with the Pétrole has begun for several years. In spite of successes related to the sector of the renewable energies, Nuclear and especially of a change of lifestyle and consumption, the final replacement of the fossil fuels is made wait. References: Wind energy, hydroelectric Energy, Geothermal energy, Solar energy, energy Hydrolienne, Combustible battery, Nuclear energy, geological Storage of carbon dioxide.

In addition answers are also brought by the civil society. ONG and local associations conduct campaigns and actions of lobbying. In France, the ONG of environmental protection and the associations concerned gathered within the Réseau Action Climate (RAC). The Network Action Climate France takes part in the international negotiations, writes national proposals and sets up regional and local actions.

See also the Clock of the end of the world, based in Chicago.

The majority of the States adhere to the Protocol of Kyoto

See also: Protocol of Kyoto

Convention Tallies of the United Nations on the climate changes was signed in 1992 at the time of the top of the ground in Rio de Janeiro. It is coming into effect on March 21st, 1994. It was ratified to date by 189 States, among which all the nations industrialized except for the United States and of Australia appear. The parts with convention tallies on the climate changes were fixed as objective to stabilize the concentration of gases with greenhouse effect in the atmosphere on “a level which prevents any dangerous anthropic disturbance of the climate”. The developed countries have like objective to bring back their gas emissions to greenhouse effect in 2010 to the level of 1990, this objective is not legally constraining.

In 1997, the parts with Convention tallies on the climate changes of the United Nations (UNFCCC) adopted the protocol of Kyoto, whose innovation consists in establishing constraining engagements of reduction for the countries known as of the appendix B (industrialized countries and of transition) and installing mechanisms known as “of flexibility” (gone of license, implemented joint and mechanism of clean development) to fill this engagement. The protocol of Kyoto came into effect on February 16th, 2005 following its ratification by the Federation of Russia.

At the date of July 2006 , the protocol of Kyoto was ratified by 156 States. The United States and Australia are not signatories. The the United States, are however the first world transmitter (20% of the gas emissions with greenhouse effect). The countries of the appendix B were committed reducing their emissions of six gases to greenhouse effect (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, SF₆, HFC, PFC) of 5,2% in 2008-2012 compared to the level of 1990. This objective represents actually a reduction in approximately - 20% compared to the level of emissions anticipated for 2010 if no control measures had been adopted. The reduction objectives by country go from a reduction of 8% for the European Union to a possibility of increase of 10% for the Iceland.

Countries in the process of development strongly contributors with the emissions like the India, 5th world transmitter, and the China, 2nd world transmitter, do not have reduction objectives because they were regarded as insufficiently industrialized and because their levels of emissions brought back to the number of inhabitants are extremely low. The mechanism known as “of clean development” (MDP), founded by the protocol of Kyoto, allows the investors, n the other hand clean investment in a developing country, to gain “ appropriations carbon ”. This mechanism allows the countries developed to have access to the reductions with low costs of the developing countries and thus to reduce the cost of their engagement. It makes it possible the developing countries to profit from clean investments. He encourages the technology transfers. The MDP appears however insufficient to deeply inflect the trajectories of emissions of these countries. The absence of engagement of reduction of the developing countries is one of the reasons advanced by the United States to justify their refusal to ratify the protocol. This is why one of the major stakes for the period after Kyoto is to define methods of association of these countries in the joint effort of reduction.

China, first world pollutant

With a growth of the GDP with two digits for more than ten years, China has strongly industrialized itself. In 2007, it is the first producer and consuming coal, first energy source Chinese which is extremely polluting. Moreover, the increase in the standard of living increases the request for products “énergivores” such as the cars or air-conditioning. The level of emissions per capita still remains very low, compared with the United States or Europe.

In 2007, China became the first world pollutant with 6.200 million tons of equivalent CO2 against the United States (5 800 million). However it produces only 5,4 times less richnesses than the EU or the United States (Total GDP 2006, World Bank), and it would not have had, in theory, to reach this level only in the neighborhoods of 2020.

European Union, an example

Admittedly, always 3rd world pollutant after China and the United States, the Union has assets to fight against the warming .

• Initially, it launched in 2005 the Marché of European license, primary market of license forcing on a world level. The European commission will activate its observatory in 2007-2008 of energy, remained embryonic, and it must publish in 2007 a “green Book” on the adaptation of the EU to the climate change, which should launch the debate before a decision making in 2008. The Directive on the European system of exchange of rights of emission will be modified in 2008, to include the emissions of aviation in particular. The proposal on the limits of emission of the cars (120g of CO₂ by km is 12 kg of CO₂/100 km; let us recall that each car traverses on average 15.000 km/an) should be published in the second half-year of 2007. The DG Recherche must propose in November a European plan, and proposals for a legislation on the “clean” combustible batteries and planes. Invitations to tender on energy and the climate should be published before mid 2007. June 29th, 2007, the commission publishes and puts in consultation a green Livre on the question and the possibilities of action of the UECOM (2007) 354 final). He preaches at the same time the adaption and the attenuation, the improvement of knowledge (including on the needs and costs for adaptation - cf 7th outline programme of research of the EU (2007-2013), the development of strategies and exchanges of good practices between country, of new products assurantiels (“derivatives climatic”, “obligations catastrophe”, the adaptation of the European markets of the insurances (cf directive “Solvency II”) and of the funds “natural disasters” as well as policies agriculture and fishing, with the development of an internal solidarity at the EU and with the touched external countries. 50 EURO million is reserved by the Commission on 2007-2010 to support the dialog and the assistance to measurements of targeted attenuation and adaptation, in the poor countries.
  La France has also (July 2007) published a National strategy of adaptation to the climate change

• Then, it has a third of the world nuclear capacity (source: IAEA) and accounts for 66% of the wind power installed in the world in 2006 (of which the greatest part produced in Denmark which produces thus nearly 40% of its electric output) in front of the United States (16%), India (8%) and Japan (2%). That makes it less dependant on fossil energies than China and the United States. France, country models in this respect, remains however far from the record of 1961 when 51% of its electrical energy came from renewable (hydroelectric) (source: booklet of reception EDF).

The United States, for or against Kyoto

See also: Protocol of Kyōto#Refus of the administration Bush

In July 2005, the administration of George W. Bush refused to present the treaty for ratification again because she considers that would slow down the economy of the the United States and that the combat against climate warming must be done not with a simple reduction of gases with greenhouse effect, but by a better management of their emission.

Many a states of the the United States nevertheless took restriction measures on gases with greenhouse effect.

Fight against climate warming in the United States

Since 2001, the states of the Texas, California, New Hampshire, founded an inspecting device of the gas emissions for various industrial sectors and energy. The device adopted by California, which will apply as from 2009, envisages to reduce the gas emissions pollutants by 22% on average from here 2012 and 30% from here 2016.

Moreover, the principle of the markets of the allowed emission consists in granting to the industrialists “pollutants” free, at fixed price or the biddings, of the quotas of emissions of CO₂, that those can be then exchanged. Each transmitter of CO₂ must then check that it holds as much license of emission than than it will emit. In the contrary case, it is constrained or to decrease its emissions, or to buy licenses. Conversely, if its efforts of control of the emissions enable him to have a surplus of license, it can sell them.

Such processes were carried out to reduce the Acid rains to the United States and were successes (program “ Acid rain ”). This system of the markets of license of emission belongs to the device of the Protocole of Kyoto which at the date of July 2006 is still not ratified by the United States.

In 2004, the Republican senator John McCain and the democrat Joseph Lieberman file in a bill aiming at limiting the rejections in the atmosphere; supported by the Alcoa large companies, Dupont de Nemours and American Electric Power, it is however not adopted.

The United States finances with China, Japan, Russia and the EU, project ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor), research project on controlled nuclear fusion, led to Cadarache (southern of France). However the clear production of energy by hot nuclear fusion remains with the state of remote hope: the most optimistic forecasts of the partisans of the project speak about several tens of years. Some see more hope in the energy production by nuclear Reactions out of condensed matter.

Examples on a State scale

• the decisions to reduce the emissions of CO₂ are made by the federate states: in 2005, 18 of these states obliged the producers of electricity to use renewable energy sources partly.

• In 2005, the mayors of 136 American cities, undertook to apply the standards of the protocol of Kyoto and to reduce from here 2012 their gas emissions to greenhouse effect of 7% compared to 1990.
• the state of the Nevada aims to reach the threshold of 20% of its consumption in renewable energy, from here 2015, in particular thanks to the solar power stations installed in the desert.

• California:

Whereas the Californian population accounts for 12% of the American population, it consumes only 7% of the electricity produced in the country; thus, California is in the first place for energy profitability by anybody. The state began to limit the gas emissions to greenhouse effect: the announced objectives are a reduction of 11% before 2010 and 87% before 2050. August 30th, 2006, the government and the Parliament of California sign an agreement to decrease the production of Gaz to greenhouse effect, putting the state in conformity with the Protocole of Kyoto. Decision AB32 ( Total Warming Solutions Act ) was made to reduce by a quarter the gas emissions to greenhouse effect from here 2020. Financial sanctions will be taken against industries which do not respect this engagement. A market of license of emissions will be created and controlled by the Air Board Resources.

California also committed itself complying with more strict rules on the consumption and the mufflers of new vehicles; this policy is imitated by two other states of the west: Washington and Oregon. September 20th, 2006, Bill Lockyer the Minister for the justice of California, launches legal proceedings against three American car manufacturers and three Japanese, and their request of the damages for the pollution which they generate. According to him, the motor vehicles account for 30% of the carbon dioxide emissions of the State.

In 2005, the republican governor Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed that the budget of the state of California finances with height of 6,5 million dollars the construction of stations for the vehicles rolling to the Hydrogène.

The code of education of California (chapter IV, sections 8700 to 8784) insists that the pupils are sensitized with the environmental problems.

• Solar energy

Thanks to its good sunning, California develops solar energy: the state shelters cylindro-parabolic collectors whose power reaches 80 MW, the largest central tower power plant as Solar one then Solar 2 does not exceed 10 MW.

A bill obliges the property developers to install a system of solar energy on 15% of the new houses built in California as from 2006. The bill provides that, from here 2010,55% of the houses will be equipped in solar panels. The governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had made countryside to incite to install solar systems in half of the houses of the state as from 2005.

The thermo-solar power station Nevada Solar One is in construction since February 11th, 2006 with Boulder City. In the long term, it will develop a power of 64 Megawatts and will be the third of the world.

California adopted a law which constrained great automobile groups to sell vehicles respecting of the strict standards of rejections of CO₂.

• Wind energy

California is the state where wind energy is developed with a production capacity of more than 2040 MW installed in 2004, far in front of the Texas (1293 MW). The principal area of production is in the north of the state, in the east of San Francisco.

• Geothermics

To 150 km in the north of San Francisco, 19 geothermal power stations (350 wells) are controlled by the company Calpine in the counties of Lake and Sonoma. They produce approximately 850 megawatts, i.e. almost as much as small a Nuclear plant.

• New York: The tower of the freedom, which will replace the twin towers World Trade Center , will respect ecological standards: 20% of its electricity will be produced by wind mills.

Moreover, on the initiative of the mayor of Seattle, 166 American big cities, whose New York and Boston, were solemnly committed respecting the protocol of Kyoto in March 2005.

Individual measurements of fight against climate warming

Knowing that each French emits four times more gas with greenhouse effect than planet cannot durably support some, experts outlined the daily gestures to implement, as of today, to limit climate warming: would

• has what resemble a world “énergétiquement virtuous”? , by Jean-Marc Jancovici.
• a truth which disturbs , Documentary film based on a conference of Al Gore (site).

Essential measurements concern energy saving, in particular of fossil energies:

• To avoid taking the plane;
• To use the least possible the motor vehicles (to prefer bicycle or rail-bound transport with each time possible);
• If a car is really necessary, to choose the lightest model and most effective possible (for example, certain manufacturers announced vehicles consuming less than 1.5 L/100km);
• To reach an optimal insulation of the buildings, at best by the recourse to the architecture Bioclimatique which reduces to the maximum the needs for heating (less than 15 kWh/m ² /an with a dwelling passivates) and removes the need for active air-conditioning, while improving comfort of life.

Following report/ratio AR4 of GIEC, approved by all the countries whose United States, 46 countries committed itself fighting against the countries which would not reduce their gas emissions to greenhouse effect. The countries mainly concerned are the United States, Russia, India and China.

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